Well, what are “major” life decisions? Working in the area of Friendly AGI instead of, say, just String Theory? Quit smoking? Or things like getting a child or not?
As one may guess from those questions, I did not have any more success by coercing the bayesian monster than I would have had by just doing the things which already seemed well supported by major pop-science-newspaper-articles.
What I do know is, that although it is difficult to get information on what to do next in my special situation, it seems much easier to get information on things many people already do. I just try to make and educated guess and say that nearly everybody does many things which many people do.
And often enough one can find things which one does but which should not be done. It may sound silly, but I include things like not smoking, not talking to your friends when you’re depressed (writing personal notes works better as friends seem to reinforce the bad mood), and not trying to work as a researcher (y’a know, 80% of the people think they are above average...).
What you describe as “X, the fictional character”, seems like setting up an in-brain story to think about difficult topics which require analytical thinking, helping to concentrate on one topic by actively blocking random interference of visual/auditory ideas.
This is not an “convincing argument” (maybe it’s just my English skills, but “convincing argument … what would do” just does not parse into something meaningful) but just a technique. Similar to concentrate on breathing or muscle tonus or your thoughts or some real or imaginary candle or smell when exeucting the meditation of your preference.
Well, what are “major” life decisions? Working in the area of Friendly AGI instead of, say, just String Theory? Quit smoking? Or things like getting a child or not?
As one may guess from those questions, I did not have any more success by coercing the bayesian monster than I would have had by just doing the things which already seemed well supported by major pop-science-newspaper-articles.
What I do know is, that although it is difficult to get information on what to do next in my special situation, it seems much easier to get information on things many people already do. I just try to make and educated guess and say that nearly everybody does many things which many people do.
And often enough one can find things which one does but which should not be done. It may sound silly, but I include things like not smoking, not talking to your friends when you’re depressed (writing personal notes works better as friends seem to reinforce the bad mood), and not trying to work as a researcher (y’a know, 80% of the people think they are above average...).
What you describe as “X, the fictional character”, seems like setting up an in-brain story to think about difficult topics which require analytical thinking, helping to concentrate on one topic by actively blocking random interference of visual/auditory ideas.
This is not an “convincing argument” (maybe it’s just my English skills, but “convincing argument … what would do” just does not parse into something meaningful) but just a technique. Similar to concentrate on breathing or muscle tonus or your thoughts or some real or imaginary candle or smell when exeucting the meditation of your preference.