One problem is that I just don’t have enough “evidence” to make meaningful probability estimates. Another is that I’m only weakly aware of my own utility function.
Based on those two lucid observations, I’d say you’re doing well so far.
There are some principles I used to weigh major life decisions. I’m not sure they are “rationalist” principles; I don’t much care. They’ve turned out well for me.
Here’s one of them: “having one option is called a trap; having two options is a dilemma; three or more is truly a choice”. Think about the terms of your decision and generate as many different options as you can. Not necessarily a list of final choices, but rather a list of candidate choices, or even of choice-components.
If you could wave a magic wand and have whatever you wanted, what would be at the top of your list? (This is a mind-trick to improve awareness of your desires, or “utility function” if you want to use that term.) What options, irrespective of their downsides, give you those results?
Given a more complete list you can use the good old Benjamin Franklin method of listing pros and cons of each choice. Often this first step of option generation turns out sufficient to get you unstuck anyway.
Based on those two lucid observations, I’d say you’re doing well so far.
There are some principles I used to weigh major life decisions. I’m not sure they are “rationalist” principles; I don’t much care. They’ve turned out well for me.
Here’s one of them: “having one option is called a trap; having two options is a dilemma; three or more is truly a choice”. Think about the terms of your decision and generate as many different options as you can. Not necessarily a list of final choices, but rather a list of candidate choices, or even of choice-components.
If you could wave a magic wand and have whatever you wanted, what would be at the top of your list? (This is a mind-trick to improve awareness of your desires, or “utility function” if you want to use that term.) What options, irrespective of their downsides, give you those results?
Given a more complete list you can use the good old Benjamin Franklin method of listing pros and cons of each choice. Often this first step of option generation turns out sufficient to get you unstuck anyway.
Having two options is a dilemma, having three options is a trilemma, having four options is a tetralemma, having five options is a pentalemma...
:)
A few more than five is an oligolemma; many more is a polylemma.
Many more is called perfect competition. :3