I’d suppose that the heuristic is along the lines of the following: Say there’s an agreed-upon fair procedure for deciding who gets something, and then someone changes that procedure, and someone other than you ends up benefiting. Then it’s unfair, and what’s yours has probably been taken.
Given that rigorous probability theory didn’t emerge until the later stages of human civilization, there’s not much room for an additional heuristic saying “unless it doesn’t change the odds” to have evolved; indeed, all of the agreed-upon random ways of selecting things (that I’ve ever heard of) work by obvious symmetry of chances rather than by abstract equality of odds†, and most of the times someone intentionally changed the process, they were probably in fact hoping to cheat the odds.
† Thought experiment: we have to decide a binary disagreement by chance, and instead of flipping a coin or playing Rock-Paper-Scissors, I suggest we do the following: First, you roll a 6-sided die, and if it’s a 1 or 2 you win. Otherwise, I roll a 12-sided die, and if it’s 1 through 9 I win, and if it’s 10 through 12 you win.
Now compute the odds (50-50, unless I made a dumb mistake), and then actually try it (in real life) with non-negligible stakes. I predict that you’ll feel slightly more uneasy about the experience than you would be flipping a coin.
I’d suppose that the heuristic is along the lines of the following: Say there’s an agreed-upon fair procedure for deciding who gets something, and then someone changes that procedure, and someone other than you ends up benefiting. Then it’s unfair, and what’s yours has probably been taken.
Everything else you’ve said makes sense, but I think the heuristic here is way off. Firstly, they object before the results have been produced, so the benefit is unknown. Second, the assumption of an agreed upon procedure is only really valid in the poker example. Other examples don’t have such an agreement and seem to display the same behavior. Finally, the change to the produce could be by a disinterested party with no possible personal gain to be had. I suspect that the reaction would stay the same.
So, whatever heuristic may be at fault here, it doesn’t seem to be the one you are focusing on. The fact that my friends didn’t say, “You’re cheating” or “You broke the rules” is more evidence against this being the heuristic. I am open to the idea of a heuristic being behind this. I am also open to the idea that my friends may not be aware of the heuristic or its implications. But I don’t see how anything is pointing toward the heuristic you have suggested.
† Thought experiment: we have to decide a binary disagreement by chance, and instead of flipping a coin or playing Rock-Paper-Scissors, I suggest we do the following: First, you roll a 6-sided die, and if it’s a 1 or 2 you win. Otherwise, I roll a 12-sided die, and if it’s 1 through 9 I win, and if it’s 10 through 12 you win.
Hmm… 1⁄3 I win outright… 2⁄3 enters a second roll where I win 1⁄4 of the time. Is that...
Seems right to me. And I don’t suspect to feel uneasy about such an experience at all since the odds are the same. If someone offered me a scenario and I didn’t have the math prepared I would work out the math and decide if it is fair.
If I do the contest and you start winning every single time I might start getting nervous. But I would do the same thing regardless of the dice/coin combos we were using.
I would actually feel safer using the dice because I found that I can strongly influence flipping a fair quarter in my favor without much effort.
Because human beings often first have a reaction based on an evolved, unconscious heuristic, and only later form a conscious rationalization about it, which can end up looking irrational if you ask the right questions (e.g. the standard reactions to the incest thought experiment there). So, yes, they were probably unaware of the heuristic they were actually using.
I’d suppose that the heuristic is along the lines of the following: Say there’s an agreed-upon fair procedure for deciding who gets something, and then someone changes that procedure, and someone other than you ends up benefiting. Then it’s unfair, and what’s yours has probably been taken.
Given that rigorous probability theory didn’t emerge until the later stages of human civilization, there’s not much room for an additional heuristic saying “unless it doesn’t change the odds” to have evolved; indeed, all of the agreed-upon random ways of selecting things (that I’ve ever heard of) work by obvious symmetry of chances rather than by abstract equality of odds†, and most of the times someone intentionally changed the process, they were probably in fact hoping to cheat the odds.
† Thought experiment: we have to decide a binary disagreement by chance, and instead of flipping a coin or playing Rock-Paper-Scissors, I suggest we do the following: First, you roll a 6-sided die, and if it’s a 1 or 2 you win. Otherwise, I roll a 12-sided die, and if it’s 1 through 9 I win, and if it’s 10 through 12 you win.
Now compute the odds (50-50, unless I made a dumb mistake), and then actually try it (in real life) with non-negligible stakes. I predict that you’ll feel slightly more uneasy about the experience than you would be flipping a coin.
Everything else you’ve said makes sense, but I think the heuristic here is way off. Firstly, they object before the results have been produced, so the benefit is unknown. Second, the assumption of an agreed upon procedure is only really valid in the poker example. Other examples don’t have such an agreement and seem to display the same behavior. Finally, the change to the produce could be by a disinterested party with no possible personal gain to be had. I suspect that the reaction would stay the same.
So, whatever heuristic may be at fault here, it doesn’t seem to be the one you are focusing on. The fact that my friends didn’t say, “You’re cheating” or “You broke the rules” is more evidence against this being the heuristic. I am open to the idea of a heuristic being behind this. I am also open to the idea that my friends may not be aware of the heuristic or its implications. But I don’t see how anything is pointing toward the heuristic you have suggested.
Hmm… 1⁄3 I win outright… 2⁄3 enters a second roll where I win 1⁄4 of the time. Is that...
1⁄3 + 2⁄3 * 1⁄4 =
1⁄3 + 2⁄12 =
4⁄12 + 2⁄12 =
6⁄12 =
1⁄2
Seems right to me. And I don’t suspect to feel uneasy about such an experience at all since the odds are the same. If someone offered me a scenario and I didn’t have the math prepared I would work out the math and decide if it is fair.
If I do the contest and you start winning every single time I might start getting nervous. But I would do the same thing regardless of the dice/coin combos we were using.
I would actually feel safer using the dice because I found that I can strongly influence flipping a fair quarter in my favor without much effort.