Both numbers seem basically arbitrarily small (probability 0).
Since the planet has so many distinct people, and they blink more than once a day, you are essentially asserting that on that planet, multiple people are kidnapped and tortured for more than 50 years several times a day.
Since the planet has so many distinct people, and they blink more than once a day, you are essentially asserting that on that planet, multiple people are kidnapped and tortured for more than 50 years several times a day.
Well, I mean, obviously a single person can’t be kidnapped more than once every 50 years (assuming that’s how long each torture session lasts), and certainly not several times a day, since he/she wouldn’t have finished being tortured quickly enough to be kidnapped again. But yes, the general sentiment of your comment is correct, I’d say. The prospect of a planet with daily kidnappings and 50-year-long torture sessions may seem strange, but that sort of thing is just what you get when you have a population count of 3^^^3.
Well, now I know you’re underestimating how big 3^^^3 is (and 5^^^5, too). But let’s say somehow you’re right, and the probability really is 1/5^^^5. All I have to do is modify the thought experiment so that the planet has 5^^^5 people instead of 3^^^3. There, problem solved.
So, new question: would you prefer that one person be horribly tortured for fifty years without hope or rest, or that 5^^^5 people get dust specks in their eyes?
I think you underestimate the magnitude of 3^^^3 (and thereby overestimate the magnitude of 1/3^^^3).
Both numbers seem basically arbitrarily small (probability 0).
Since the planet has so many distinct people, and they blink more than once a day, you are essentially asserting that on that planet, multiple people are kidnapped and tortured for more than 50 years several times a day.
Well, I mean, obviously a single person can’t be kidnapped more than once every 50 years (assuming that’s how long each torture session lasts), and certainly not several times a day, since he/she wouldn’t have finished being tortured quickly enough to be kidnapped again. But yes, the general sentiment of your comment is correct, I’d say. The prospect of a planet with daily kidnappings and 50-year-long torture sessions may seem strange, but that sort of thing is just what you get when you have a population count of 3^^^3.
I worked it out back of the envelope, and the probability of being kidnapped when you blink is only 1/5^^^5.
Well, now I know you’re underestimating how big 3^^^3 is (and 5^^^5, too). But let’s say somehow you’re right, and the probability really is 1/5^^^5. All I have to do is modify the thought experiment so that the planet has 5^^^5 people instead of 3^^^3. There, problem solved.
So, new question: would you prefer that one person be horribly tortured for fifty years without hope or rest, or that 5^^^5 people get dust specks in their eyes?