But what CFAR found was that humans are actually really really good at Bayesian reasoning, when other psychological factors are not getting in the way.
What’s the source for that claim? Is that a public position of CFAR?
No. It is something somebody said to me once. (Possibly in a context where I’m supposed to anonymize the source—I don’t remember for sure.) I’m sure there are a lot of other complexities to CFAR’s history, and a lot of different summaries one could give. And maybe this particular summary is actually really bad for some reason I’m not aware of.
What’s the source for that claim? Is that a public position of CFAR?
No. It is something somebody said to me once. (Possibly in a context where I’m supposed to anonymize the source—I don’t remember for sure.) I’m sure there are a lot of other complexities to CFAR’s history, and a lot of different summaries one could give. And maybe this particular summary is actually really bad for some reason I’m not aware of.