I think realistically, the expected value is much lower than $1k per question (on Predictit, for instance), unless you can beat the market by a very substantial margin.
On average, I’d guess my expected PredictIt profit per question I put a substantial time + money investment into is around $600. Obviously, this is evidence that the market is extremely inefficient; I just don’t see how a market with no incentive to put the time in would be any better.
I think realistically, the expected value is much lower than $1k per question (on Predictit, for instance), unless you can beat the market by a very substantial margin.
On average, I’d guess my expected PredictIt profit per question I put a substantial time + money investment into is around $600. Obviously, this is evidence that the market is extremely inefficient; I just don’t see how a market with no incentive to put the time in would be any better.