Doesn’t work. There are a lot of different countries that have made the same changes. So if there were a survivorship bias one would still see the collapse and chaos in neighboring areas.
Case 1: Someone tells me I will die tomorrow. Case 2: As above, but preceded by 99 people on 99 different days telling me I will die the next day, and I don’t.
Assuming everything else is constant, on your account do I have more evidence for my death tomorrow in case 1, or case 2?
If you insist on oblique evocative responses in lieu of answering questions, I suppose my reply is “I stopped going to church but I haven’t gone to hell. My priest’s warnings must have been lies.” But honestly, I prefer the more boring conversational method of actually answering questions.
I suppose my reply is “I stopped going to church but I haven’t gone to hell. My priest’s warnings must have been lies.”
That doesn’t seem to follow. The priest never predicted that you would go to hell prior to your death. The priest’s prediction has not been falsified. (The fact that it never can be by a live person is a whole separate issue.)
I don’t know what you’re analog of someone telling you that you will die tomorrow is supposed to be. In the topic under discussion the warnings are much more similar to the warnings issued about smoking than saying “if you do this, you die tomorrow”.
Classic case of survival/anthropic bias.
Doesn’t work. There are a lot of different countries that have made the same changes. So if there were a survivorship bias one would still see the collapse and chaos in neighboring areas.
Case 1: Someone tells me I will die tomorrow.
Case 2: As above, but preceded by 99 people on 99 different days telling me I will die the next day, and I don’t.
Assuming everything else is constant, on your account do I have more evidence for my death tomorrow in case 1, or case 2?
“I stopped working out and started smoking but I’m still alive. The health warnings must have been lies.”
If you insist on oblique evocative responses in lieu of answering questions, I suppose my reply is “I stopped going to church but I haven’t gone to hell. My priest’s warnings must have been lies.” But honestly, I prefer the more boring conversational method of actually answering questions.
That doesn’t seem to follow. The priest never predicted that you would go to hell prior to your death. The priest’s prediction has not been falsified. (The fact that it never can be by a live person is a whole separate issue.)
Sorry, I thought my point was clear.
I don’t know what you’re analog of someone telling you that you will die tomorrow is supposed to be. In the topic under discussion the warnings are much more similar to the warnings issued about smoking than saying “if you do this, you die tomorrow”.