And yet Northern European societies, which have very low gender inequality, haven’t collapsed yet.
No, you’re absolutely right they haven’t collapsed yet. Even though their native populations have fallen under the replacement rate and are rapidly aging, they can still function more-or-less by importing huge numbers of cheap foreign immigrants and ignoring any shenanigans they get up to. Even though their cultures and social structures have largely been dismantled, their enormous tax rates and the free military security provided by the US means their welfare states can afford to fill those functions (with varying degrees of success). Even though their economies are growing at the rate of lichen, they’re still big enough (and the rest of the world small enough) that the EU’s protectionist policies can keep them out of the red.
But patches don’t hold forever; you can already see the cracks. It’s only been a little over a half-century and democratic Europe is already seeing a stagnation most empires have to last for centuries to attain. They might well outlast me personally, that’s entirely possible even given my family’s longevity, but I’d bet good money no modern European welfare state makes it to 2099.
(EDIT: Oh, look at this too.)
To be honest, these statistics don’t really impress me much; a fertility rate of 1.8 or 1.6 is better than the European average, but both are tragically low in a country where resources are as abundant as they are in a modern 1st world nation. And the divorce rates, while better than ours certainly, are still absolutely pathetically sad compared to any society which practices arranged marriage.
If you can’t even beat the replacement rate in terms of fertility and 40-50% of marriages fail so spectacularly the courts need to be involved, those are not numbers to be proud of. It is an indictment of the state of the world that this is the best our modern societies can do.
(Also, how comes people can ever get along with roommates of the same sex, where there’s no Schelling point as to who should do which chores?)
To be honest, we don’t. Or at least we don’t get along on the same timescale as a successful marriage. I’ve never had a roommate last longer than two years, much less the decades you need just to raise 3+ kids.
Actually, now that you mention it, people in modern marriages do look more like roomies than spouses. 50% leaving in the first five years actually sounds pretty optimistic for roommates; people that reliable I might actually want to rent to. Of course, you’d be nuts to actually sell them a house unless they paid upfront… you’re just not going to see that 30 year mortgage paid off.
Even though their cultures and social structures have largely been dismantled...
Oh really? I’ve been to Scandinavia recently. And while the center of Stockholm got to be a less than entirely pleasant place (not Gamla Stan, of course, one has to provide for the tourists), Oslo is noticeably better and once you get out of capital cities into small towns and the country, the “cultures and social structures” look entirely intact to me.
You also forgot that Norway has oil. Lots of oil and not too many people. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is about $730Bn in size and is the largest stock owner in Europe.
and once you get out of capital cities into small towns and the country, the “cultures and social structures” look entirely intact to me
Indeed, I’d be curious whether the downward trends reactionaries point out would still apply when you control for the size of settlements people live in (i.e., comparing people in towns of 10,000 inhabitants today with people in towns of 10,000 inhabitants in the past).
No, you’re absolutely right they haven’t collapsed yet. Even though their native populations have fallen under the replacement rate and are rapidly aging, they can still function more-or-less by importing huge numbers of cheap foreign immigrants and ignoring any shenanigans they get up to. Even though their cultures and social structures have largely been dismantled, their enormous tax rates and the free military security provided by the US means their welfare states can afford to fill those functions (with varying degrees of success). Even though their economies are growing at the rate of lichen, they’re still big enough (and the rest of the world small enough) that the EU’s protectionist policies can keep them out of the red.
But patches don’t hold forever; you can already see the cracks. It’s only been a little over a half-century and democratic Europe is already seeing a stagnation most empires have to last for centuries to attain. They might well outlast me personally, that’s entirely possible even given my family’s longevity, but I’d bet good money no modern European welfare state makes it to 2099.
To be honest, these statistics don’t really impress me much; a fertility rate of 1.8 or 1.6 is better than the European average, but both are tragically low in a country where resources are as abundant as they are in a modern 1st world nation. And the divorce rates, while better than ours certainly, are still absolutely pathetically sad compared to any society which practices arranged marriage.
If you can’t even beat the replacement rate in terms of fertility and 40-50% of marriages fail so spectacularly the courts need to be involved, those are not numbers to be proud of. It is an indictment of the state of the world that this is the best our modern societies can do.
To be honest, we don’t. Or at least we don’t get along on the same timescale as a successful marriage. I’ve never had a roommate last longer than two years, much less the decades you need just to raise 3+ kids.
Actually, now that you mention it, people in modern marriages do look more like roomies than spouses. 50% leaving in the first five years actually sounds pretty optimistic for roommates; people that reliable I might actually want to rent to. Of course, you’d be nuts to actually sell them a house unless they paid upfront… you’re just not going to see that 30 year mortgage paid off.
Oh really? I’ve been to Scandinavia recently. And while the center of Stockholm got to be a less than entirely pleasant place (not Gamla Stan, of course, one has to provide for the tourists), Oslo is noticeably better and once you get out of capital cities into small towns and the country, the “cultures and social structures” look entirely intact to me.
You also forgot that Norway has oil. Lots of oil and not too many people. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is about $730Bn in size and is the largest stock owner in Europe.
Indeed, I’d be curious whether the downward trends reactionaries point out would still apply when you control for the size of settlements people live in (i.e., comparing people in towns of 10,000 inhabitants today with people in towns of 10,000 inhabitants in the past).