Given that exponential technological progress is likely, or at least plausible, how is life expectancy only around 80 years?
The term “life expectancy” usually refers to something that’s not a prediction. It’s constructed from the past year’s results of many age groups. See https://www.britannica.com/science/life-expectancy.
Oh, wow! So are there approaches that try to predict how long someone will live, taking into account that the future is likely to be (very) different from the past? And if so, what results do they typically get?
There’s no observed exponential technological progress if you measure our ability to increase life expectancy.
Whether technology will actually increase or decrease life expectancy depends a lot on the assumptions that you put into your models.
Given that exponential technological progress is likely, or at least plausible, how is life expectancy only around 80 years?
The term “life expectancy” usually refers to something that’s not a prediction. It’s constructed from the past year’s results of many age groups. See https://www.britannica.com/science/life-expectancy.
Oh, wow! So are there approaches that try to predict how long someone will live, taking into account that the future is likely to be (very) different from the past? And if so, what results do they typically get?
There’s no observed exponential technological progress if you measure our ability to increase life expectancy.
Whether technology will actually increase or decrease life expectancy depends a lot on the assumptions that you put into your models.