Stub Post: Thoughts on why it can be hard to tell if something is hindsight bias or not.
Imagine one’s thought process as an idea-graph, with the process of thinking being hopping around nodes. Your long term memory can be thought of as the nodes and edges that are already there and persist strongly. The contents of your working memory are like temporary nodes and edges that are in your idea graph, and everything that is close to them gets a +10 to speed-of-access. A short term memory node can even cause edges to pop up between two other nodes around it.
Claim: There is no obvious felt/perceived experice that accompanies the creation of an edge, only to the traversal of an edge.
Implication: If I observed mentally hopping from A to B to C, I could see and admit that B was responsible for getting to C. But if the presence of B in my working memory creates an edge directly form A to B, it “feels like” I jump from A to C, and that B doesn’t have anything to do with it.
This seems to be in accord with things like how the framing of questions has a huge effect on what people’s answers are. There are probably some domains where you don’t actually have much of a persistent model, and your “model” mostly consists of the temporary connections created by the contents of your working memory.
Stub Post: Thoughts on why it can be hard to tell if something is hindsight bias or not.
Imagine one’s thought process as an idea-graph, with the process of thinking being hopping around nodes. Your long term memory can be thought of as the nodes and edges that are already there and persist strongly. The contents of your working memory are like temporary nodes and edges that are in your idea graph, and everything that is close to them gets a +10 to speed-of-access. A short term memory node can even cause edges to pop up between two other nodes around it.
Claim: There is no obvious felt/perceived experice that accompanies the creation of an edge, only to the traversal of an edge.
Implication: If I observed mentally hopping from A to B to C, I could see and admit that B was responsible for getting to C. But if the presence of B in my working memory creates an edge directly form A to B, it “feels like” I jump from A to C, and that B doesn’t have anything to do with it.
This seems to be in accord with things like how the framing of questions has a huge effect on what people’s answers are. There are probably some domains where you don’t actually have much of a persistent model, and your “model” mostly consists of the temporary connections created by the contents of your working memory.