I do like this intuition pump—it gets across how weird the situation is—but here’s one thing you may not have realised:
Once the experiment is over, then even based on thirder logic, people ought to cease saying “I’m 90% sure...” and start saying “I’m 50% sure...”
(Because they have forgotten the ‘extra information’ that led them to give 90% rather than 50% as their probability of cancer.)
I do like this intuition pump—it gets across how weird the situation is—but here’s one thing you may not have realised:
Once the experiment is over, then even based on thirder logic, people ought to cease saying “I’m 90% sure...” and start saying “I’m 50% sure...”
(Because they have forgotten the ‘extra information’ that led them to give 90% rather than 50% as their probability of cancer.)