And if you cross the street, you might get hit by a car. This sort of reasoning goes on and on but never gets you anywhere. If you don’t want to do something, you can always find a reason.
The fact that one might get hit by a car when crossing the street does not prevent people from crossing the street; it causes them to actually look to see if cars are coming before crossing the street. Did you miss the part where I talked about how the evidence might convince someone the risk is acceptable in their case? Or how it might help them to compare it to another trick that is less risky or more likely to work for them that they could try first?
And where, pray tell is this information going to come from if nobody tries anything? If the Extreme Rationalist position is only to try things that have been validated on other people first, what happens when everybody is an extreme rationalist? Doesn’t sound very scalable to me.
Getting volunteer subjects for a study is different than announcing a trick on the internet and expecting people to try it.
Where do you think the data is going to come from if people just try it on their own? How are you going to realize if you have suggested a trick that doesn’t work, or that only works for some people, if you accept all anecdotal success stories as confirming its effectiveness, but reject all reports of failure because people just make excuses?
How are you going to realize if you have suggested a trick that doesn’t work, or that only works for some people, if you accept all anecdotal success stories as confirming its effectiveness, but reject all reports of failure because people just make excuses?
I can only assume you’re implying that that’s what I do. But as I’ve already stated, when someone has performed a technique to my satisfaction, and it still doesn’t work, I have them try something else. I don’t just say, “oh well, tough luck, and it’s your fault”.
There are only a few possibilities regarding an explanation of why “different things work for different people”:
Some things only work on some people, and this is an unchanging trait attributable to the people themselves,
Some things only work on certain kinds of problems, and many problems superficially sound similar but are actually different in their mechanism of operation (so that technique A works on problem A1 but not A2, and the testers/experimenters have not yet discerned the difference between A1 and A2), and
Some people have an easier time of learning how to do some things than others, depending in part on how the thing is explained, and what prior beliefs, understandings, etc. they have. (So that even though a test of technique A is being performed, in practice one is testing an unknown set of variant techniques A1, A2,...)
On LW, #1 is a popular explanation, but I have seen much more evidence that makes sense for #2 and #3. (For example, not being able to apply a technique and then later learning it supports #3, and discovering a criterion that predicts which of two techniques will be more likely to work for a given problem supports #2.)
Of course, I cannot 100% rule out the possibility that #1 could be true, but it seems like pretty long odds to me. There are so many clear-cut cases of #2 and #3, that barring actual brain damage or defect, #1 seems like adding unnecessary entities to one’s model, without any theoretical or empirical justification whatsoever.
More than that, it sounds exactly like attribution error, and an instance of Dweck’s “fixed” mindset as well. In other words, we can expect belief in #1 to be associated with a mindset that is highly correlated with consistent difficulty and stress in the corresponding field.
That’s why I consider view #1 to be bad instrumental hygiene as well as not that likely to be true anyway. It’s a horrible negative self-prime to saddle yourself with.
The fact that one might get hit by a car when crossing the street does not prevent people from crossing the street; it causes them to actually look to see if cars are coming before crossing the street. Did you miss the part where I talked about how the evidence might convince someone the risk is acceptable in their case? Or how it might help them to compare it to another trick that is less risky or more likely to work for them that they could try first?
Getting volunteer subjects for a study is different than announcing a trick on the internet and expecting people to try it.
Where do you think the data is going to come from if people just try it on their own? How are you going to realize if you have suggested a trick that doesn’t work, or that only works for some people, if you accept all anecdotal success stories as confirming its effectiveness, but reject all reports of failure because people just make excuses?
I can only assume you’re implying that that’s what I do. But as I’ve already stated, when someone has performed a technique to my satisfaction, and it still doesn’t work, I have them try something else. I don’t just say, “oh well, tough luck, and it’s your fault”.
There are only a few possibilities regarding an explanation of why “different things work for different people”:
Some things only work on some people, and this is an unchanging trait attributable to the people themselves,
Some things only work on certain kinds of problems, and many problems superficially sound similar but are actually different in their mechanism of operation (so that technique A works on problem A1 but not A2, and the testers/experimenters have not yet discerned the difference between A1 and A2), and
Some people have an easier time of learning how to do some things than others, depending in part on how the thing is explained, and what prior beliefs, understandings, etc. they have. (So that even though a test of technique A is being performed, in practice one is testing an unknown set of variant techniques A1, A2,...)
On LW, #1 is a popular explanation, but I have seen much more evidence that makes sense for #2 and #3. (For example, not being able to apply a technique and then later learning it supports #3, and discovering a criterion that predicts which of two techniques will be more likely to work for a given problem supports #2.)
Of course, I cannot 100% rule out the possibility that #1 could be true, but it seems like pretty long odds to me. There are so many clear-cut cases of #2 and #3, that barring actual brain damage or defect, #1 seems like adding unnecessary entities to one’s model, without any theoretical or empirical justification whatsoever.
More than that, it sounds exactly like attribution error, and an instance of Dweck’s “fixed” mindset as well. In other words, we can expect belief in #1 to be associated with a mindset that is highly correlated with consistent difficulty and stress in the corresponding field.
That’s why I consider view #1 to be bad instrumental hygiene as well as not that likely to be true anyway. It’s a horrible negative self-prime to saddle yourself with.