the ‘updateless’ part does seem very similar to the “act as if you had precommitted to any action that you’d have wanted to precommit to” core idea of NDT
Yep, that’s a common intuition pump people use in order to understand the “updateless” part of UDT.
It’s not clear to me that the super powerful UDT would make the wrong decision in the game where two players pick numbers between 0-10
A proof-based UDT agent would—this follows from the definition of proof-based UDT. Intuitively, we surely want a decision theory that reasons as you said, but the question is, can you write down a decision algorithm that actually reasons like that?
Most people agree with you on the philosophy of how an idealized decision theory should act, but the hard part is formalizing a decision theory that actually does the right things. The difficult part isn’t in the philosophy, the difficult part is turning the philosophy into math :-)
Yep, that’s a common intuition pump people use in order to understand the “updateless” part of UDT.
A proof-based UDT agent would—this follows from the definition of proof-based UDT. Intuitively, we surely want a decision theory that reasons as you said, but the question is, can you write down a decision algorithm that actually reasons like that?
Most people agree with you on the philosophy of how an idealized decision theory should act, but the hard part is formalizing a decision theory that actually does the right things. The difficult part isn’t in the philosophy, the difficult part is turning the philosophy into math :-)