I estimate that for most people, voting is worth a charitable donation of somewhere between $100 and $1.5 million. For me, the value came out to around $56,000.
You reason, I think, that since most everyone has better knowledge of the identity of the better candidate than chance, Chance (to reconstruct the argument) is the relevant criterion because, for your vote to be decisive, the other voters would have shown themselves (as a whole) to be indifferent between the two outcomes—I find that a convenient way to put it. In the only circumstance where your vote “matters,” you can improve the group average if you can do better than 50%. And surely just about everybody thinks their political judgment superior to a coin flip!
But consider another thought experiment. Should a potential voter vote when he knows he is below average, simply because he can pick the better candidate better than chance? He should—only if the only point of voting is deciding a tie vote. But to the extent voting is for signaling the strength of factions rather than merely deciding binary outcomes, perhaps the below-average voter should abstain. There are a lot more compelling reasons not to vote than to worry about draws. Your analysis leaves them out.
You reason, I think, that since most everyone has better knowledge of the identity of the better candidate than chance, Chance (to reconstruct the argument) is the relevant criterion because, for your vote to be decisive, the other voters would have shown themselves (as a whole) to be indifferent between the two outcomes—I find that a convenient way to put it. In the only circumstance where your vote “matters,” you can improve the group average if you can do better than 50%. And surely just about everybody thinks their political judgment superior to a coin flip!
But consider another thought experiment. Should a potential voter vote when he knows he is below average, simply because he can pick the better candidate better than chance? He should—only if the only point of voting is deciding a tie vote. But to the extent voting is for signaling the strength of factions rather than merely deciding binary outcomes, perhaps the below-average voter should abstain. There are a lot more compelling reasons not to vote than to worry about draws. Your analysis leaves them out.