Do you seriously believe that if half the plumbers dropped dead, the price of hiring a plumber wouldn’t go up, and the remaining plumbers wouldn’t find it easier to get jobs?
If it’s unrelated to the plumbing job, one would expect the increase in wages to be transient, as others reskill into plumbing. (Current licensing requirements often require five years of training, but would hopefully be modified in such a situation.)
Talking about a specific trade obscures the general model. A plumber produces a service, but consumes many goods and services. One can imagine America with twice the number of people in it, or America with half the number of people in it (i.e. America in 1950). Prices then and now seem roughly the same in a large number of categories (higher in some, and smaller in others—living in cities that can’t expand anywhere but up is more expensive now than then, but goods and services that benefit from scale are considerably cheaper now than then), particularly when one considers wages. The main wage gains seem to be in industries that have larger returns to scale (things like software).
The primary economic costs with immigration are the switching costs of reallocating people and jobs. (Cultural and social costs deserve a separate discussion.)
If it’s unrelated to the plumbing job, one would expect the increase in wages to be transient, as others reskill into plumbing. (Current licensing requirements often require five years of training, but would hopefully be modified in such a situation.)
Talking about a specific trade obscures the general model. A plumber produces a service, but consumes many goods and services. One can imagine America with twice the number of people in it, or America with half the number of people in it (i.e. America in 1950). Prices then and now seem roughly the same in a large number of categories (higher in some, and smaller in others—living in cities that can’t expand anywhere but up is more expensive now than then, but goods and services that benefit from scale are considerably cheaper now than then), particularly when one considers wages. The main wage gains seem to be in industries that have larger returns to scale (things like software).
The primary economic costs with immigration are the switching costs of reallocating people and jobs. (Cultural and social costs deserve a separate discussion.)