You’re neglecting the base rate of 16 year old conformity. I think this is some pretty silly speculation, but let’s run with it. Isn’t the base rate for 16 year old conformity at least 10 to 1? If so, a 16 year old who’s a leftist is no more likely to be a conformist than any other.
In the end, what we’re looking for is a reliable signal that, whatever the 16 year old thinks, it’s due to their independent reasoning.
Widely shared reasonable beliefs won’t cut it, because they wouldn’t have to think it out for themselves. Outrageous contrarian views won’t work, because that’s not reasonable.
You’d have to look for them to hold views that are both reasonable and contrarian. So, a genius. Is that a realistic bar to diagnose your kid as uninfected by mind viruses?
Ideological conformity in the school system is not uniform. A person turning left when everybody else is turning right is much less likely to be a conformist than someone else turning right.
ETA: Without metaphor, our priors for conformist vs. well-reasoned is different for young rightists or non-leftists in the school system.
You’re neglecting the base rate of 16 year old conformity. I think this is some pretty silly speculation, but let’s run with it. Isn’t the base rate for 16 year old conformity at least 10 to 1? If so, a 16 year old who’s a leftist is no more likely to be a conformist than any other.
In the end, what we’re looking for is a reliable signal that, whatever the 16 year old thinks, it’s due to their independent reasoning.
Widely shared reasonable beliefs won’t cut it, because they wouldn’t have to think it out for themselves. Outrageous contrarian views won’t work, because that’s not reasonable.
You’d have to look for them to hold views that are both reasonable and contrarian. So, a genius. Is that a realistic bar to diagnose your kid as uninfected by mind viruses?
Ideological conformity in the school system is not uniform. A person turning left when everybody else is turning right is much less likely to be a conformist than someone else turning right.
ETA: Without metaphor, our priors for conformist vs. well-reasoned is different for young rightists or non-leftists in the school system.