A 3% a year economic growth model is actually an exponential growth model as well, it’s not linear at all. The exponential growth rate is a lot lower then Moore’s law, 1.03^n instead of 2^n, but it’s still exponential growth.
That is true, but those who use this model predict typically not for long − 5-10 years, where exponential nature of such growth is not much evident. But in demographic and long term economic prediction it becomes clearly exponential. Probably I should reformulate and separate slow, but exponential growth, from actually linear predictions.
Yeah; don’t underestimate slow but exponential growth, I would say that 3% a year growth is what really started at the start of the industrial revolution and why we’ve gotten as far as we have.
Personally I expect overall civilization wide exponential growth at some intermediate level for the next few decades faster than 3% but slower then Moore’s law. Lot of uncertainty in there of course.
A 3% a year economic growth model is actually an exponential growth model as well, it’s not linear at all. The exponential growth rate is a lot lower then Moore’s law, 1.03^n instead of 2^n, but it’s still exponential growth.
That is true, but those who use this model predict typically not for long − 5-10 years, where exponential nature of such growth is not much evident. But in demographic and long term economic prediction it becomes clearly exponential. Probably I should reformulate and separate slow, but exponential growth, from actually linear predictions.
Yeah; don’t underestimate slow but exponential growth, I would say that 3% a year growth is what really started at the start of the industrial revolution and why we’ve gotten as far as we have.
Personally I expect overall civilization wide exponential growth at some intermediate level for the next few decades faster than 3% but slower then Moore’s law. Lot of uncertainty in there of course.