as this continues, my estimate for how likely it is that Eugine was actually behind this has gone up from around 10% to around 50%,
That’s interesting. Do you think it’s true generally for some user X that, if I were to assert a belief that X was “behind this” and X did not respond, their lack of response would provide you with that much of a certainty-bump? Or is this unique to Eugine?
FWIW, were someone on LW to publicly assert their belief that I was covertly engaging in locally-disapproved-of behavior, I expect my response would be some version of “Interesting. Why do you believe that?” without confirming or denying it, and I doubt greatly that I would make my votes public in response.
Admittedly, were someone to PM me asking if I was doing that and if so why, I would probably answer honestly.
The certainty bump is a function of a variety of different aspects of the lack of response, including the fact that he didn’t even say something like what you suggest about “”Interesting. Why do you believe that? And that he’s not responded even as this thread has grown, and he didn’t respond to either PMs (apparently) or the first public call out.
There’s also an aspect of personalities that is relevant here. Frankly, I’d expect you to say something like your suggested response whether or not you were actually engaging in the behavior in question. If Eugine were not, given the rest of what I’ve seen of his interaction, I’d expect that he’d be substantially more likely to vocally deny it, since he’s generally blunt. And the 10% to to 50% has included finding out related information such as the fact that twice before ialdabaoth made direct comments to Eugine about this that got no response at all. See here and here.
So I should clarify that the movement from 10% to 50% is not just Eugine’s lack of denial, but the complete lack of response and finding out that this isn’t a new thing at all but something that has happened repeatedly previously.
That’s interesting. Do you think it’s true generally for some user X that, if I were to assert a belief that X was “behind this” and X did not respond, their lack of response would provide you with that much of a certainty-bump? Or is this unique to Eugine?
FWIW, were someone on LW to publicly assert their belief that I was covertly engaging in locally-disapproved-of behavior, I expect my response would be some version of “Interesting. Why do you believe that?” without confirming or denying it, and I doubt greatly that I would make my votes public in response.
Admittedly, were someone to PM me asking if I was doing that and if so why, I would probably answer honestly.
The certainty bump is a function of a variety of different aspects of the lack of response, including the fact that he didn’t even say something like what you suggest about “”Interesting. Why do you believe that? And that he’s not responded even as this thread has grown, and he didn’t respond to either PMs (apparently) or the first public call out.
There’s also an aspect of personalities that is relevant here. Frankly, I’d expect you to say something like your suggested response whether or not you were actually engaging in the behavior in question. If Eugine were not, given the rest of what I’ve seen of his interaction, I’d expect that he’d be substantially more likely to vocally deny it, since he’s generally blunt. And the 10% to to 50% has included finding out related information such as the fact that twice before ialdabaoth made direct comments to Eugine about this that got no response at all. See here and here.
So I should clarify that the movement from 10% to 50% is not just Eugine’s lack of denial, but the complete lack of response and finding out that this isn’t a new thing at all but something that has happened repeatedly previously.
(nods) OK. Thanks for clarifying.
Yup, I’d expect that as well.