For example, as this continues, my estimate for how likely it is that Eugine was actually behind this has gone up from around 10% to around 50%,
Wow. I agree that E_N’s silence is evidence they’re ialdabaoth’s downvoter (not least because E_N doesn’t generally shrink from confronting people about being wrong) but I wouldn’t peg it as having a likelihood ratio of 5. More like 1.2 or 1.5, maybe. The only strong bits of evidence pointing at E_N are these two points ialdabaoth made. The other things, namely
other people who wrote broadly left-wing things about sex/gender got block downvoted too, albeit less intensively
daenerys & Tenoke themselves noticed they were downvoted shortly after making left-wing-sounding comments on sex/gender
ialdabaoth’s stalker has to have at least 800 karma to downvote so much, which exonerates newbies
are much more slender evidence. The Eugine Dunnit Hypothesis does seem to tie all of that evidence together nicely, but maybe that’s confirmation bias. I’d better try thinking of contrary evidence:
a priori I’d have expected E_N to be less likely than average to go on a downvoting rampage; my mental model of E_N simply argues with people it disagrees with, rather than pulling some cloak-&-dagger shit
I’ve disagreed with E_N before, and I’m fairly sure E_N’s downvoted me at least once, but I don’t remember ever being block downvoted
shminux “would be quite surprised if whoever karma-stalked me was pissed off at anything I said about gender issues”
for example if Eugine had responded quickly he could have simply made his votes public which one can do from preferences as I understand it.
I might be wrong (I don’t use that feature) but I think that only makes votes on top-level posts public. (Though that information would still be suggestive.)
Edit: aaaand I only just saw your reply to TheOtherDave.
a priori I’d have expected E_N to be less likely than average to go on a downvoting rampage; my mental model of E_N simply argues with people it disagrees with, rather than pulling some cloak-&-dagger shit
I agree strongly here. That’s part of why my initial estimate was low. My initial estimate was based on the fact that there were around 5-6 users with enough karma and the apparent political motivation, and then I reduced that percentage for Eugine because he seemed unlikely to be the sort of person who would do something like this.
I’ve disagreed with E_N before, and I’m fairly sure E_N’s downvoted me at least once, but I don’t remember ever being block downvoted
I’ve been block downvoted before, also on gender/sex issues, but I’m fairly confident that wasn’t Eugine. On the other hand, I’m also fairly sure base on some things that I’ve seen that Eugine has downvoted people while he replies to them as part of an ongoing disagreement(Edit:And he seems to be doing just that to me right now in another conversation, which is sort of amusing at some level.) And this sort of thing seems indicative of the sort of attitude that would be more likely to go and engage in block downvoting. But even given that I agree it is out of character.
shminux “would be quite surprised if whoever karma-stalked me was pissed off at anything I said about gender issues”
Right. Trying to explain all of this with one hypothetical super downvoter may be a problem. In shminux’s case, he’s got a lot of different controversial opinions that could potentially trigger something. The same applies to Imm’s comment.
might be wrong (I don’t use that feature) but I think that only makes votes on top-level posts public. (Though that information would still be suggestive.)
Hmm, in that case, this would be close to completely useless- all of ialdabaoth’s submitted posts have multiple downvotes, so one could legitimately have downvoted almost all of them. The only that might be particularly interesting is this one which has only 2 downvotes.
On the other hand, I’m also fairly sure base on some things that I’ve seen that Eugine has downvoted people while he replies to them as part of an ongoing disagreement(Edit:And he seems to be doing just that to me right now in another conversation, which is sort of amusing at some level.) And this sort of thing seems indicative of the sort of attitude that would be more likely to go and engage in block downvoting.
This is actually what makes it fairly easy for me to believe that Eugine is responsible. In discussions I’ve had with him in the past, he seems to downvote my comments automatically, without regard for content, merely because I am disagreeing with him. Take, for example, these twocomments. Both of them are responses to Eugine, and both of them have exactly one downvote, which I am pretty confident comes from Eugine.
I can’t see a legitimate reason for downvoting either of those comments. Neither one makes an argument or presents a controversial opinion. They are just presenting facts, facts which correct some misconception upthread. The fact that they were downvoted seems to me an indication of pretty significant mindkilling. Basically, the downvoter seems to be saying, “I don’t want to see politically inconvenient facts on this website.” Either that or, “I don’t want to see people challenging my political views on this website.” That kind of attitude seems quite compatible with indiscriminate bulk downvoting.
Wow. I agree that E_N’s silence is evidence they’re ialdabaoth’s downvoter (not least because E_N doesn’t generally shrink from confronting people about being wrong) but I wouldn’t peg it as having a likelihood ratio of 5. More like 1.2 or 1.5, maybe. The only strong bits of evidence pointing at E_N are these two points ialdabaoth made. The other things, namely
other people who wrote broadly left-wing things about sex/gender got block downvoted too, albeit less intensively
daenerys & Tenoke themselves noticed they were downvoted shortly after making left-wing-sounding comments on sex/gender
ialdabaoth’s stalker has to have at least 800 karma to downvote so much, which exonerates newbies
Eugine_Nier went over the 5-quotation quota in this month’s Rationality Quotes (and in last month’s as well)
are much more slender evidence. The Eugine Dunnit Hypothesis does seem to tie all of that evidence together nicely, but maybe that’s confirmation bias. I’d better try thinking of contrary evidence:
a priori I’d have expected E_N to be less likely than average to go on a downvoting rampage; my mental model of E_N simply argues with people it disagrees with, rather than pulling some cloak-&-dagger shit
I’ve disagreed with E_N before, and I’m fairly sure E_N’s downvoted me at least once, but I don’t remember ever being block downvoted
shminux “would be quite surprised if whoever karma-stalked me was pissed off at anything I said about gender issues”
lmm’s comment
Not sure what to make of it all.
I might be wrong (I don’t use that feature) but I think that only makes votes on top-level posts public. (Though that information would still be suggestive.)
Edit: aaaand I only just saw your reply to TheOtherDave.
I agree strongly here. That’s part of why my initial estimate was low. My initial estimate was based on the fact that there were around 5-6 users with enough karma and the apparent political motivation, and then I reduced that percentage for Eugine because he seemed unlikely to be the sort of person who would do something like this.
I’ve been block downvoted before, also on gender/sex issues, but I’m fairly confident that wasn’t Eugine. On the other hand, I’m also fairly sure base on some things that I’ve seen that Eugine has downvoted people while he replies to them as part of an ongoing disagreement(Edit:And he seems to be doing just that to me right now in another conversation, which is sort of amusing at some level.) And this sort of thing seems indicative of the sort of attitude that would be more likely to go and engage in block downvoting. But even given that I agree it is out of character.
Right. Trying to explain all of this with one hypothetical super downvoter may be a problem. In shminux’s case, he’s got a lot of different controversial opinions that could potentially trigger something. The same applies to Imm’s comment.
Hmm, in that case, this would be close to completely useless- all of ialdabaoth’s submitted posts have multiple downvotes, so one could legitimately have downvoted almost all of them. The only that might be particularly interesting is this one which has only 2 downvotes.
This is actually what makes it fairly easy for me to believe that Eugine is responsible. In discussions I’ve had with him in the past, he seems to downvote my comments automatically, without regard for content, merely because I am disagreeing with him. Take, for example, these two comments. Both of them are responses to Eugine, and both of them have exactly one downvote, which I am pretty confident comes from Eugine.
I can’t see a legitimate reason for downvoting either of those comments. Neither one makes an argument or presents a controversial opinion. They are just presenting facts, facts which correct some misconception upthread. The fact that they were downvoted seems to me an indication of pretty significant mindkilling. Basically, the downvoter seems to be saying, “I don’t want to see politically inconvenient facts on this website.” Either that or, “I don’t want to see people challenging my political views on this website.” That kind of attitude seems quite compatible with indiscriminate bulk downvoting.