This feels pretty nitpick-y, but whether or not I’d be interested in taking a bet will depend on the odds—in many cases I might take either side, given a reasonably wide spread. Maybe append at p >= 0.5 to the descriptions to clarify?
The shorthand trading syntax “$size @ $sell_percent / $buy_percent” is especially nice because it expresses the spread you’d accept to take either side of the bet, e.g. “25 @ 85⁄15 on rain tomorrow” to offer a bet of $25 dollars, selling if you think probability of rain is >85%, buying if you think it’s <15%. Seems hard to build this into a reaction though!
The only reason I’ve not already done this is that there’s already a lot of text in the hover-over
I’m willing to operationalize this, find an adjudicator, and bet this claim is true
Another option is that you could pair the “I’d bet on this” react with a probability react. There could be a single react that says “I’m willing to be on this” and then you also react with one of <1%, 10%, 25%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 75%, 90%, 99+%, so that people know what odds you’d take.
lol we did have a debate about this internally before shipping.
Right now we’re trying to get a rough sense of ‘would people make more bets on LW if they had more affordance to?’, and an easy thing to try was just making some reacts. But a) I encourage people to reply with followup details if they are interested in betting, and b) if it turns out reasonably popular we may make a more dedicated feature.
This feels pretty nitpick-y, but whether or not I’d be interested in taking a bet will depend on the odds—in many cases I might take either side, given a reasonably wide spread. Maybe append
at p >= 0.5to the descriptions to clarify?The shorthand trading syntax “$size @ $sell_percent / $buy_percent” is especially nice because it expresses the spread you’d accept to take either side of the bet, e.g. “25 @ 85⁄15 on rain tomorrow” to offer a bet of $25 dollars, selling if you think probability of rain is >85%, buying if you think it’s <15%. Seems hard to build this into a reaction though!
The only reason I’ve not already done this is that there’s already a lot of text in the hover-over
Another option is that you could pair the “I’d bet on this” react with a probability react. There could be a single react that says “I’m willing to be on this” and then you also react with one of <1%, 10%, 25%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 75%, 90%, 99+%, so that people know what odds you’d take.
lol we did have a debate about this internally before shipping.
Right now we’re trying to get a rough sense of ‘would people make more bets on LW if they had more affordance to?’, and an easy thing to try was just making some reacts. But a) I encourage people to reply with followup details if they are interested in betting, and b) if it turns out reasonably popular we may make a more dedicated feature.
(FYI I was happy to see your recent bet with BenG, and am hoping more things like that happen)