I’m thinking about the rigor of alternating strategies. Here are three examples.
Forward-Chaining vs Backward-Chaining
To be rich, don’t marry for money. Surround yourself by rich people and marry for love. But be very strict about not letting poor people into your environment.
Scott Garrabrant’s once described his Embedded Agency research to me as the most back-chaining in terms of the area of work, and the most forward-chaining within that area. Often quite unable to justify what he’s working on in the short-term (e.g. 1, 2, 3) yet can turn out to be very useful later on (e.g. 1).
Optimism vs Pessimism
Successful startup founders build a vision they feel incredible optimism and excitement about and are committed to making happen, yet falsify it as quickly as possible by building a sh*tty MVP and putting it in front of users, because you’re probably wrong and the customer will show you what they want. Another name is “Vision vs Falsification”.
Finding vs Avoiding (Needles in Haystacks)
Some work is about finding the needle, and some is about mining hay whilst ensuring that you avoid 100% of needles.
For example when trying to build a successful Fusion Power Generator, most things you build will fail, and you’re searching through a wide space of designs for the small space of designs that will work. However, when you’re building a bridge, you basically know how to do it, and you just want to avoid the edge cases where the bridge collapses in 10 years. You mostly know where the hay is, and you need very high reliability in avoiding the needles.
Notably, when you’re building the Fusion Power Generator, most of the surrounding work is like bridge building. Hiring people, organizing their accommodation, setting up a legal company, getting funding, etc, these are all known quantities and you just want to do the basics here. So, one needle-finding mission surrounded by a bunch of hay-finding-needle-averse missions, with both needing to be done well.
There’s a rigor in finding success in the balance between these opposing strategies, and I like aiming for absoluteness – being able to shift with great lightness between the two.
What are other examples of opposing strategies, where success requires being able to alternate sharply between the two?
I’m thinking about the rigor of alternating strategies. Here are three examples.
Forward-Chaining vs Backward-Chaining
To be rich, don’t marry for money. Surround yourself by rich people and marry for love. But be very strict about not letting poor people into your environment.
Scott Garrabrant’s once described his Embedded Agency research to me as the most back-chaining in terms of the area of work, and the most forward-chaining within that area. Often quite unable to justify what he’s working on in the short-term (e.g. 1, 2, 3) yet can turn out to be very useful later on (e.g. 1).
Optimism vs Pessimism
Successful startup founders build a vision they feel incredible optimism and excitement about and are committed to making happen, yet falsify it as quickly as possible by building a sh*tty MVP and putting it in front of users, because you’re probably wrong and the customer will show you what they want. Another name is “Vision vs Falsification”.
Finding vs Avoiding (Needles in Haystacks)
Some work is about finding the needle, and some is about mining hay whilst ensuring that you avoid 100% of needles.
For example when trying to build a successful Fusion Power Generator, most things you build will fail, and you’re searching through a wide space of designs for the small space of designs that will work. However, when you’re building a bridge, you basically know how to do it, and you just want to avoid the edge cases where the bridge collapses in 10 years. You mostly know where the hay is, and you need very high reliability in avoiding the needles.
Notably, when you’re building the Fusion Power Generator, most of the surrounding work is like bridge building. Hiring people, organizing their accommodation, setting up a legal company, getting funding, etc, these are all known quantities and you just want to do the basics here. So, one needle-finding mission surrounded by a bunch of hay-finding-needle-averse missions, with both needing to be done well.
There’s a rigor in finding success in the balance between these opposing strategies, and I like aiming for absoluteness – being able to shift with great lightness between the two.
What are other examples of opposing strategies, where success requires being able to alternate sharply between the two?