If it is true, we should find ourselves surprisingly early in the history of Universe.
But if we consider that frequency of gamma-ray bursts is quickly diminishing, and so we could not be very early, because there were so many planet killing gamma-bursts, these two tendencies may cancel each other and we are just in time.
Also, what if intelligent life is just a rare event? Like not rare enough to explain Fermi paradox by itself, but rare enough, that we could be considered among earliest and therefore surprisingly early in the history of universe? Given how long universe will last, we actually are quite early: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future
(Retracted: If we take total number of stars that will be ever created we are somewhere in first 7 per cent (if I remember correctly—can’t find a link), so we are early, but no surprisingly early)
If it is true, we should find ourselves surprisingly early in the history of Universe. But if we consider that frequency of gamma-ray bursts is quickly diminishing, and so we could not be very early, because there were so many planet killing gamma-bursts, these two tendencies may cancel each other and we are just in time.
Also, what if intelligent life is just a rare event? Like not rare enough to explain Fermi paradox by itself, but rare enough, that we could be considered among earliest and therefore surprisingly early in the history of universe? Given how long universe will last, we actually are quite early: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future
(Retracted: If we take total number of stars that will be ever created we are somewhere in first 7 per cent (if I remember correctly—can’t find a link), so we are early, but no surprisingly early)
Update: I was wrong. we are surprisingly late. 95 per cent stars is already created. http://www.wired.com/2012/11/universe-making-stars/
Update 2: but when the Sun was born it was exactly 50 per cent of stars were already born. It is strong argument for rare earth.