For civilizations with no singleton I agree with your logic. But there might be/​have been civilizations where one king is the absolute leader and it is able to block research into whatever technologies it wants. What kind of great filter destroys an industrialized planet run by King Lee Kuan Yew who has a 1000 (earth) year lifespan?
I am not sure that exactly this is FP solution. Personally I am more incline to Rare Earth solutions.
But I could suggest that may be the complexity of risks problem is so complex that no simple measures like banning most technologies will work. The weak point is that one von Neumann Probe is enough to colonise all visible universe. So there should be something which prevents civilizations from vNPs creation.
For civilizations with no singleton I agree with your logic. But there might be/​have been civilizations where one king is the absolute leader and it is able to block research into whatever technologies it wants. What kind of great filter destroys an industrialized planet run by King Lee Kuan Yew who has a 1000 (earth) year lifespan?
I am not sure that exactly this is FP solution. Personally I am more incline to Rare Earth solutions.
But I could suggest that may be the complexity of risks problem is so complex that no simple measures like banning most technologies will work. The weak point is that one von Neumann Probe is enough to colonise all visible universe. So there should be something which prevents civilizations from vNPs creation.
While I hope that Rare Earth is right, it implies that we are special. It seems far more likely that we are common.
Doomsday argument for Fermi paradox claims that more likely that Great filter is ahead. It was created by Katja Grace