Was your prediction that cases would go down and then up also for the UK in addition to the US? I thought the new strain prevalence was already pretty high in parts of England according to the pre-print, so it seems like cases going down by a lot there is a big update towards the pre-print potentially being wrong? The UK’s last wave doesn’t look naively out of distribution compared to e.g. Spain and the U.S.
[To clarify: I think this was worded somewhat incorrectly—I didn’t update much on the probability of the pre-print being wrong, but I did update significantly on the implications of the higher transmissibility.]
Was your prediction that cases would go down and then up also for the UK in addition to the US? I thought the new strain prevalence was already pretty high in parts of England according to the pre-print, so it seems like cases going down by a lot there is a big update towards the pre-print potentially being wrong? The UK’s last wave doesn’t look naively out of distribution compared to e.g. Spain and the U.S.
[To clarify: I think this was worded somewhat incorrectly—I didn’t update much on the probability of the pre-print being wrong, but I did update significantly on the implications of the higher transmissibility.]
No, my numerical predictions are USA-only unless it says explicitly otherwise.