Dynamically, that predicts that the advantage would rise over time, as a substantial proportion of the population got infected by the original strain. I think we’ve been monitoring the UK variant enough to see that this is not a large portion of its advantage.
Even statically, I think it’s difficult to make the numbers work out. The idea that the population has heterogeneous risk makes a lot of sense, but it doesn’t seem born out by the basic prediction that HIT is much lower than predicted by initial R. I suppose the control system might make it hard to observe how close we are getting to HIT, but I’m skeptical. And you need zero cross-immunity. But then wouldn’t the observed reinfections skyrocket and be obvious? Maybe if the reinfections are asymptomatic, but just as contagious. I guess that this very specific scenario predicts that the new variant has passed through the riskiest portion of the London population and no longer has an advantage there.
Dynamically, that predicts that the advantage would rise over time, as a substantial proportion of the population got infected by the original strain. I think we’ve been monitoring the UK variant enough to see that this is not a large portion of its advantage.
Even statically, I think it’s difficult to make the numbers work out. The idea that the population has heterogeneous risk makes a lot of sense, but it doesn’t seem born out by the basic prediction that HIT is much lower than predicted by initial R. I suppose the control system might make it hard to observe how close we are getting to HIT, but I’m skeptical. And you need zero cross-immunity. But then wouldn’t the observed reinfections skyrocket and be obvious? Maybe if the reinfections are asymptomatic, but just as contagious. I guess that this very specific scenario predicts that the new variant has passed through the riskiest portion of the London population and no longer has an advantage there.