My own take (not meant to be strong evidence of anything, mostly just kinda documenting my internal updating experience)
I had already updated towards fairly shortish (like, maybe 20% chance of AGI in 20 years?). I initially had a surge of AAAAUGH maybe the end times around now right around the corner with GPT-3, but I think that was mostly unwarranted. (At least, GPT-3 didn’t seem like new information, it seemed roughly what I’d have expected GPT-3 to be like, and insofar as I’m updating shorter it seems like that means I just made a mistake last year when first evaluating GPT-2)
My own take (not meant to be strong evidence of anything, mostly just kinda documenting my internal updating experience)
I had already updated towards fairly shortish (like, maybe 20% chance of AGI in 20 years?). I initially had a surge of AAAAUGH maybe the end times around now right around the corner with GPT-3, but I think that was mostly unwarranted. (At least, GPT-3 didn’t seem like new information, it seemed roughly what I’d have expected GPT-3 to be like, and insofar as I’m updating shorter it seems like that means I just made a mistake last year when first evaluating GPT-2)
I’m also interested in more of Kaj’s thoughts.