I wanted to write a post on this topic for a while, but couldn’t find the time. I’m glad I got to do the talk instead, since that helped me with narrowing down the scope.
I have more thoughts I can type up, if people are interested.
Definitely interested, especially if there are more details you can give about the options bets you mentioned in this comment.
I’m only vaguely informed about options with no experience buying them, so I likely need to learn more before I can ask useful questions about this, but I don’t want to miss the opportunity to say I’d definitely be interested in any thoughts you might be considering posting, since I’m interested in this type of general bet on AI progress.
Anyway, I know you can’t give investment advice and don’t expect you to teach me how options work, so I guess I’m just hoping for details that help figure out if I’m thinking about this correctly, specifically with respect to using options to bet on certain short AI timeline scenarios.
(For concreteness, my general understanding is something like: say I decide the bet to make is on GOOG stock. So I set aside $X per month to buy “long call” options on GOOG as you indicate in this comment. And I should be prepared to typically lose all of that $X each month, unless the bet pays off.)
I wanted to write a post on this topic for a while, but couldn’t find the time. I’m glad I got to do the talk instead, since that helped me with narrowing down the scope.
I have more thoughts I can type up, if people are interested.
I quite enjoyed this and found it useful. Would love more thoughts.
Definitely interested, especially if there are more details you can give about the options bets you mentioned in this comment.
I’m only vaguely informed about options with no experience buying them, so I likely need to learn more before I can ask useful questions about this, but I don’t want to miss the opportunity to say I’d definitely be interested in any thoughts you might be considering posting, since I’m interested in this type of general bet on AI progress.
Anyway, I know you can’t give investment advice and don’t expect you to teach me how options work, so I guess I’m just hoping for details that help figure out if I’m thinking about this correctly, specifically with respect to using options to bet on certain short AI timeline scenarios.
(For concreteness, my general understanding is something like: say I decide the bet to make is on GOOG stock. So I set aside $X per month to buy “long call” options on GOOG as you indicate in this comment. And I should be prepared to typically lose all of that $X each month, unless the bet pays off.)