It is a lot of assumption and conjecture, that’s true. But it is not all conjecture and assumptions. When comparative advantage applies despite one side having an absolute advantage, we know why it applies. We can point to which premises of the theory are load-bearing, and know what happens when we break those premises. We can point to examples within the range of scenarios that exist among humans, where it doesn’t apply, without ever considering what other capabilities an ASI might have.
I will say I do think there’s a bit of misdirection, not by you, but by a lot of the people who like to talk about comparative advantage in this context, to the point that I find it almost funny that it’s the people questioning premises (like this post does) getting accused of making assumptions and conjectures. I’ve read a number of articles that start by talking about how comparative advantage normally means there’s value in one agent’s labor even when another has absolute advantage, which is of course true. Then they simply assume the necessary premises apply in the context of humans and ASI, without actually ever investigating that assumption, looking for limits and edge cases, or asking what actually happens if and when they don’t hold. In other words, the articles I’ve read, aren’t trying to figure out whether comparative advantage is likely to apply in this case. They’re simply assuming it will, and that those questioning this assumption or asking about the probability and conditions of it holding don’t understand the underlying theory.
For comparative advantage to apply, there are conditions. Breaking the conditions doesn’t always break comparative advantage, of course, because none of them perfectly apply in real life ever, but they are the openings that allow it to sometimes not apply. Many of these are predictably broken more often when dealing with ASI, meaning there will be more examples where comparative advantage considerations do not control the outcome.
A) Perfect factor mobility within but none between countries.
B) Zero transportation costs.
Plausibly these two apply about as well to the ASI scenario as among humans? Although with labor as a factor, human skill and knowledge act as limiters in ways that just don’t apply to ASI.
C) Constant returns to scale—untrue in general, but even small discrepancies would be much more significant if ASI typically operates at much larger o much more finely tuned scale than humans can.
D) No externalities—potentially very different in ASI scenario, since methods used for production will also be very different in many cases, and externalities will have very different impacts on ASI vs on humans.
E) Perfect information—theoretically impossible in ASI scenario, ASI will have better information and understanding thereof
F) Equivalent products that differ only in price—not true in general, quality varies by source, and ASI amplifies this gap.
For me, the relevant questions, given all this, are 1) Will comparative advantage still favor ASI hiring humans for any given tasks? 2) If so, will the wage at which ASI is better off choosing to pay humans be at or above subsistence? 3) If so, are there enough such scenarios to support the current human population? 4) Will 1-3 continue to hold in the long run? 5) Are we confident enough in 1-4 for these considerations to meaningfully affect our strategy in developing and deploying AI systems of various sorts?
I happily grant that (1) is likely. (2) is possible but I find it doubtful except in early transitional periods. (3)-(4) seem very, very implausible to me. (5) I don’t know enough about to begin to think about concretely, which means I have to assume “no” to avoid doing very stupid things.
It is a lot of assumption and conjecture, that’s true. But it is not all conjecture and assumptions. When comparative advantage applies despite one side having an absolute advantage, we know why it applies. We can point to which premises of the theory are load-bearing, and know what happens when we break those premises. We can point to examples within the range of scenarios that exist among humans, where it doesn’t apply, without ever considering what other capabilities an ASI might have.
I will say I do think there’s a bit of misdirection, not by you, but by a lot of the people who like to talk about comparative advantage in this context, to the point that I find it almost funny that it’s the people questioning premises (like this post does) getting accused of making assumptions and conjectures. I’ve read a number of articles that start by talking about how comparative advantage normally means there’s value in one agent’s labor even when another has absolute advantage, which is of course true. Then they simply assume the necessary premises apply in the context of humans and ASI, without actually ever investigating that assumption, looking for limits and edge cases, or asking what actually happens if and when they don’t hold. In other words, the articles I’ve read, aren’t trying to figure out whether comparative advantage is likely to apply in this case. They’re simply assuming it will, and that those questioning this assumption or asking about the probability and conditions of it holding don’t understand the underlying theory.
For comparative advantage to apply, there are conditions. Breaking the conditions doesn’t always break comparative advantage, of course, because none of them perfectly apply in real life ever, but they are the openings that allow it to sometimes not apply. Many of these are predictably broken more often when dealing with ASI, meaning there will be more examples where comparative advantage considerations do not control the outcome.
A) Perfect factor mobility within but none between countries.
B) Zero transportation costs.
Plausibly these two apply about as well to the ASI scenario as among humans? Although with labor as a factor, human skill and knowledge act as limiters in ways that just don’t apply to ASI.
C) Constant returns to scale—untrue in general, but even small discrepancies would be much more significant if ASI typically operates at much larger o much more finely tuned scale than humans can.
D) No externalities—potentially very different in ASI scenario, since methods used for production will also be very different in many cases, and externalities will have very different impacts on ASI vs on humans.
E) Perfect information—theoretically impossible in ASI scenario, ASI will have better information and understanding thereof
F) Equivalent products that differ only in price—not true in general, quality varies by source, and ASI amplifies this gap.
For me, the relevant questions, given all this, are 1) Will comparative advantage still favor ASI hiring humans for any given tasks? 2) If so, will the wage at which ASI is better off choosing to pay humans be at or above subsistence? 3) If so, are there enough such scenarios to support the current human population? 4) Will 1-3 continue to hold in the long run? 5) Are we confident enough in 1-4 for these considerations to meaningfully affect our strategy in developing and deploying AI systems of various sorts?
I happily grant that (1) is likely. (2) is possible but I find it doubtful except in early transitional periods. (3)-(4) seem very, very implausible to me. (5) I don’t know enough about to begin to think about concretely, which means I have to assume “no” to avoid doing very stupid things.