Why would “which reference class is x most like” be a “failure mode”? Don’t just word-match to the closest post including the phrase “reference class” which you remember.
When you’re in a dark alley, and someone pulls a gun and approaches you, would it be a “failure mode” to ask yourself what reference class most closely matches the situation, then conclude you’re probably getting mugged?
Saying “uFAI is like Terminator!”—“No, it’s like Matrix!” would be reference class tennis, “which reference class is uFAI most like?” wouldn’t be.
Why would “which reference class is x most like” be a “failure mode”? Don’t just word-match to the closest post including the phrase “reference class” which you remember.
When you’re in a dark alley, and someone pulls a gun and approaches you, would it be a “failure mode” to ask yourself what reference class most closely matches the situation, then conclude you’re probably getting mugged?
Saying “uFAI is like Terminator!”—“No, it’s like Matrix!” would be reference class tennis, “which reference class is uFAI most like?” wouldn’t be.