Since this is a literally a question about soliciting predictions, it should have one of those embedded-interactive-predictions-with-histograms gadgets* to make predicting easier. Also, it might be worth it to have two prediction gadgets, since this is basically a prediction: one gadget to predict what Recognized AI Safety Experts (tm) predict about how much damage unsafe AIs will do, and one gadget to predict about how much damage unsafe AIs will actually do (to mitigate weird second-order effects having to do with predicting a prediction).
I think it might be more interesting to sketch what you expect the distribution of views to look like, as opposed to just giving a summary statistic. I can add probability Qs, but I avoided it initially so as not to funnel people into doing the less informative version of this exercise.
I’ve added six prediction interfaces: two for your own answers to the two Qs, two for your guess at the mean survey respondent answers, and two for your guess at the median respondent answers.
Since this is a literally a question about soliciting predictions, it should have one of those embedded-interactive-predictions-with-histograms gadgets* to make predicting easier. Also, it might be worth it to have two prediction gadgets, since this is basically a prediction: one gadget to predict what Recognized AI Safety Experts (tm) predict about how much damage unsafe AIs will do, and one gadget to predict about how much damage unsafe AIs will actually do (to mitigate weird second-order effects having to do with predicting a prediction).
*I’m not sure what they’re supposed to be called.
I think it might be more interesting to sketch what you expect the distribution of views to look like, as opposed to just giving a summary statistic. I can add probability Qs, but I avoided it initially so as not to funnel people into doing the less informative version of this exercise.
I’ve added six prediction interfaces: two for your own answers to the two Qs, two for your guess at the mean survey respondent answers, and two for your guess at the median respondent answers.