(Well, really I expect it to take <12 months, but planning fallacy and safety margins and time to iterate a little and all that.)
There’s also red teaming time, and lag in idea uptake/marketing, to account for. It’s possible that we’ll have the solution to FAI when AGI gets invented, but the inventor won’t be connected to our community and won’t be aware of/sold on the solution.
Edit: Don’t forget to account for the actual engineering effort to implement the safety solution and integrate it with capabilities work. Ideally there is time for extensive testing and/or formal verification.
I fear this too, at least because it’s the most “yelling-at-the-people-onscreen-to-act-differently” scenario that still involves the “hard part” getting solved. I wish there was more discussion of this.
There’s also red teaming time, and lag in idea uptake/marketing, to account for. It’s possible that we’ll have the solution to FAI when AGI gets invented, but the inventor won’t be connected to our community and won’t be aware of/sold on the solution.
Edit: Don’t forget to account for the actual engineering effort to implement the safety solution and integrate it with capabilities work. Ideally there is time for extensive testing and/or formal verification.
I fear this too, at least because it’s the most “yelling-at-the-people-onscreen-to-act-differently” scenario that still involves the “hard part” getting solved. I wish there was more discussion of this.