Depends on the person and the idea.
I have some people whose recommendations I follow regardless, even if I estimate upfront that I will consider the idea wrong. There are different levels of wrongness, and it does not hurt to get good counterarguments.
It also depends on the real life practicability of the idea. If it is for everyday things than common sense is a good starting prior. (Also there is a time and place to use the public joker on Who wants to be a millionaire.)
If a group of professionals agree on something related to their profession it is also a good start.
To systematize: if a group of people has a belief about something they have experience with, that that belief is worth looking at.
And then on further investigation it often turns out that there are systematic mistakes being made.
I was shocked to read in the book on checklists, that not only doctors often don’t like them. But even financial companies, that can see how the usage ups their monetary gains.
But finding flaws in a whole group does not imply that everything they say is wrong.
It is good to see a doctor, even if he not using statistics right. He can refer you to a specialist, and treat all the common stuff right away.
If you get a complicated disease you can often read up on it.
The obvious example to your question would be religion. It is widely believed, but probably wrong, yet I did not discard it right away, but spent years studying stuff till I decided there was nothing to it.
There is nothing wrong in examining the ideas other people have.
As the OP states, idea space is humongous. The fact alone that people comprehend something sufficiently to say anything about it at all means that this something is
a) noteworthy enough to be picked up by our evolutionarily derived faculties by even a bad rationalist
b) expressible by same faculties
c) not immediately, obviously wrong
To sum up, the fact that someone claims something is weak evidence that it’s true, cf. Einstein’s Arrogance. If this someone is Einstein, the evidence is not so weak.
Edit: just to clarify, I think this evidence is very weak, but evidence for the proposition, nonetheless. Dependent on the metric, by far most propositions must be “not even wrong”, i.e. garbled, meaningless or absurd. The ratio of “true” to {”wrong” + “not even wrong”} seems to ineluctably be larger for propositions expressed by humans than for those not expressed, which is why someone uttering the proposition counts as evidence for it. People simply never claim that apples fall upwards, sideways, green, kjO30KJ&¤k etc.
I forgot the major influence of my own prior knowledge. (Which i guess holds true for everyone.) That makes the cases where I had a fixed opinion, and managed to change it all the more interesting.
If you never dealt with an idea before you go where common sense or the experts lead you. But if you already have good knowledge, than public opinion should do nothing to your view.
Public opinion or even experts (esp. when outside their field) often enough state opinions without comprehending the idea. So it doesnt really mean too much.
Regarding Einstein, he made the statements before becoming super famous. I understand it as a case of signaling ‘look over here!’ And he is not particularly safe against errors. One of his last actions (which I have not fact checked sufficiently so far) was to write a foreword for a book debunking the movement of the continental plates.
Regarding Einstein, he made the statements before becoming super famous. I understand it as a case of signaling ‘look over here!’ And he is not particularly safe against errors. One of his last actions (which I have not fact checked sufficiently so far) was to write a foreword for a book debunking the movement of the continental plates.
I didn’t intend to portray Einstein as bulletproof, but rather highlight his reasoning. Plus point to the idea of even locating the idea in idea space. Obviously, creationism is wrong, but less wrong than a random string. It at least manages to identify a problem and using cause and effect.
Depends on the person and the idea. I have some people whose recommendations I follow regardless, even if I estimate upfront that I will consider the idea wrong. There are different levels of wrongness, and it does not hurt to get good counterarguments. It also depends on the real life practicability of the idea. If it is for everyday things than common sense is a good starting prior. (Also there is a time and place to use the public joker on Who wants to be a millionaire.) If a group of professionals agree on something related to their profession it is also a good start. To systematize: if a group of people has a belief about something they have experience with, that that belief is worth looking at.
And then on further investigation it often turns out that there are systematic mistakes being made.
I was shocked to read in the book on checklists, that not only doctors often don’t like them. But even financial companies, that can see how the usage ups their monetary gains. But finding flaws in a whole group does not imply that everything they say is wrong. It is good to see a doctor, even if he not using statistics right. He can refer you to a specialist, and treat all the common stuff right away. If you get a complicated disease you can often read up on it.
The obvious example to your question would be religion. It is widely believed, but probably wrong, yet I did not discard it right away, but spent years studying stuff till I decided there was nothing to it. There is nothing wrong in examining the ideas other people have.
Agreed.
As the OP states, idea space is humongous. The fact alone that people comprehend something sufficiently to say anything about it at all means that this something is a) noteworthy enough to be picked up by our evolutionarily derived faculties by even a bad rationalist b) expressible by same faculties c) not immediately, obviously wrong
To sum up, the fact that someone claims something is weak evidence that it’s true, cf. Einstein’s Arrogance. If this someone is Einstein, the evidence is not so weak.
Edit: just to clarify, I think this evidence is very weak, but evidence for the proposition, nonetheless. Dependent on the metric, by far most propositions must be “not even wrong”, i.e. garbled, meaningless or absurd. The ratio of “true” to {”wrong” + “not even wrong”} seems to ineluctably be larger for propositions expressed by humans than for those not expressed, which is why someone uttering the proposition counts as evidence for it. People simply never claim that apples fall upwards, sideways, green, kjO30KJ&¤k etc.
I forgot the major influence of my own prior knowledge. (Which i guess holds true for everyone.) That makes the cases where I had a fixed opinion, and managed to change it all the more interesting. If you never dealt with an idea before you go where common sense or the experts lead you. But if you already have good knowledge, than public opinion should do nothing to your view. Public opinion or even experts (esp. when outside their field) often enough state opinions without comprehending the idea. So it doesnt really mean too much. Regarding Einstein, he made the statements before becoming super famous. I understand it as a case of signaling ‘look over here!’ And he is not particularly safe against errors. One of his last actions (which I have not fact checked sufficiently so far) was to write a foreword for a book debunking the movement of the continental plates.
I didn’t intend to portray Einstein as bulletproof, but rather highlight his reasoning. Plus point to the idea of even locating the idea in idea space. Obviously, creationism is wrong, but less wrong than a random string. It at least manages to identify a problem and using cause and effect.
Thank you, this is what I was getting at.