Try it out, guys! LongBets and PredictionBook are good, but they’re their own niche; LongBets won’t help you with pundits who don’t use it, and PredictionBook is aimed at personal use. If you want to track current pundits, WrongTomorrow seems like the best bet.
Am I correct in reading that Longbets charges a $50 fee for publishing a prediction and they have to be a minimum of 2 years in the future? Thats a bit harsh. But these sites are pretty interesting. And they could be useful to. You could judge the accuracy of different users including how accurate they are at guessing long-term, short-term, etc predictions as well as how accurate they are in different catagories (or just how accurate they are on average if you want to be simple.) Then you can create a fairly decent picture of the future, albeit I expect many of the predictions will contradict each other. This is kind of what their already doing obviously, but they could still take it a step further.
My recent comment on Reddit reminded me of WrongTomorrow.com—a site that was mentioned briefly here a while ago, but which I haven’t seen much since.
Try it out, guys! LongBets and PredictionBook are good, but they’re their own niche; LongBets won’t help you with pundits who don’t use it, and PredictionBook is aimed at personal use. If you want to track current pundits, WrongTomorrow seems like the best bet.
Am I correct in reading that Longbets charges a $50 fee for publishing a prediction and they have to be a minimum of 2 years in the future? Thats a bit harsh. But these sites are pretty interesting. And they could be useful to. You could judge the accuracy of different users including how accurate they are at guessing long-term, short-term, etc predictions as well as how accurate they are in different catagories (or just how accurate they are on average if you want to be simple.) Then you can create a fairly decent picture of the future, albeit I expect many of the predictions will contradict each other. This is kind of what their already doing obviously, but they could still take it a step further.