but it seems clear to me that it should be possible with P > .99 to make an AI which is much smarter but slower than a human brain
‘Smarter’ in what way? It isn’t simply a function of the total amount of data processed, because we can already go beyond the human brain in that. It can’t be pure speed, either.
A mere collection of neurons won’t do it, because disorganized neurons don’t spontaneously self-organize into a working system. There needs to be enough of a system to start with for the system to build itself—and then, build itself how? Precisely what functions would be improved?
We haven’t even established how to measure most aspects of cognitive function—one of the few things we know about how our brains work is that we don’t possess tools to measure most of the things it does. How, in the midst of our profound ignorance, do we start proclaiming the results of comparisons?
Eliezer is pulling his conclusions out of thin air… and almost no one is calling him on it.
A mere collection of neurons won’t do it, because disorganized neurons don’t spontaneously self-organize into a working system. There needs to be enough of a system to start with for the system to build itself—and then, build itself how? Precisely what functions would be improved?
We haven’t even established how to measure most aspects of cognitive function—one of the few things we know about how our brains work is that we don’t possess tools to measure most of the things it does. How, in the midst of our profound ignorance, do we start proclaiming the results of comparisons?
Eliezer is pulling his conclusions out of thin air… and almost no one is calling him on it.