I’m not sure I understood the point you’re making.
A point which might be related: I’m not just saying “systemized winning still involves lucks of the dice” (i.e. just because it’s positive EV doesn’t mean you’ll win). I’m saying “studying systemized winning might be negative EV (for a given person in a given point in history.”
Illustrative example: a aspiring-doctor from the distant past might have looked at a superstitious shaman and thought “man, this guy’s arguments make no sense. Shamanism seems obviously irrational”. And the aspiring doctor goes to reason about medicine from first principles… and invents leeching/bloodletting. He might have some methods/mindsets that are “an improvement” over the shaman’s mindset, but the shaman might have generations of accumulated cultural tips/tricks that tend to work even if his arguments for them are really bad. See Book Review: The Secret Of Our Success, although also the counterpoint Reason isn’t magic.
I’m not sure I understood the point you’re making.
A point which might be related: I’m not just saying “systemized winning still involves lucks of the dice” (i.e. just because it’s positive EV doesn’t mean you’ll win). I’m saying “studying systemized winning might be negative EV (for a given person in a given point in history.”
Illustrative example: a aspiring-doctor from the distant past might have looked at a superstitious shaman and thought “man, this guy’s arguments make no sense. Shamanism seems obviously irrational”. And the aspiring doctor goes to reason about medicine from first principles… and invents leeching/bloodletting. He might have some methods/mindsets that are “an improvement” over the shaman’s mindset, but the shaman might have generations of accumulated cultural tips/tricks that tend to work even if his arguments for them are really bad. See Book Review: The Secret Of Our Success, although also the counterpoint Reason isn’t magic.