Tetlock found out that he can measure expert skill by letting people make predictions and calibrate them.
This principle can be used in many different fields to change incentives.
If you have a prison parol board you can let the people who sit on the board make predictions about recivism rates of the people they evaluate.
A law practice might get a lot better when you get all the lawyers in the practice to make prediction on the outcomes of various cases and integrate that into their workflow.
The fact that you can measure skill this way in a broad range of intellectual activities means that standard credentialing with university degrees will get less important.
Tetlock found out that he can measure expert skill by letting people make predictions and calibrate them.
This principle can be used in many different fields to change incentives.
If you have a prison parol board you can let the people who sit on the board make predictions about recivism rates of the people they evaluate.
A law practice might get a lot better when you get all the lawyers in the practice to make prediction on the outcomes of various cases and integrate that into their workflow.
In medicine it allows for prediction-based medicine.
The fact that you can measure skill this way in a broad range of intellectual activities means that standard credentialing with university degrees will get less important.