I realise you’ve been very careful about avoiding mentioning any explicit average in your section on “Combining External Forecasts”, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on mean-vs-median (links below)
I was also wondering if you had any thoughts on extremising the forecasts you’re ensembling too. (The classic example of 4 people all forecasting 60% but all based on independent information)
I realise you’ve been very careful about avoiding mentioning any explicit average in your section on “Combining External Forecasts”, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on mean-vs-median (links below)
When pooling forecasts, use the geometric mean of the odds
My current best guess on how to aggregate forecasts
I was also wondering if you had any thoughts on extremising the forecasts you’re ensembling too. (The classic example of 4 people all forecasting 60% but all based on independent information)