In this post JulianMorrison was, at least partially, trying to inform you that there is in fact something like a Bayesian Conspiracy within the Social Sciences—that there are social truths that are understood from within the discipline (or at least, from within parts of the discipline) that can’t be discussed with outsiders, because non-rational people will use the knowledge in ways with a highly negative net utility. He was also trying to test you to see if you could be trusted with initiation into that Bayesian Conspiracy.
How do you and Julian know that you are indeed in the “inner ring” of this conspiracy and/or that it’s actual purpose is what you think it is? How sure are you that this conspiracy even has any clue what it’s doing and hasn’t started to believe its own lies? Do you have an answer to the questions I asked here?
How do you and Julian know that you are indeed in the “inner ring” of this conspiracy and/or that it’s actual purpose is what you think it is? How sure are you that this conspiracy even has any clue what it’s doing and hasn’t started to believe its own lies? Do you have an answer to the questions I asked here?
On a case-by-case basis, you do experiments. You double-check them. You entertain alternate hypotheses. You accept that it’s entirely possible that things aren’t the way you think they are. You ask yourself what the likely social consequences of your actions are and if you’re comfortable with them, and then ask yourself how you know that. In short, you act like a rationalist.
(And you certainly don’t just downvote everyone who proposes a model that you don’t like.)
How do you and Julian know that you are indeed in the “inner ring” of this conspiracy and/or that it’s actual purpose is what you think it is? How sure are you that this conspiracy even has any clue what it’s doing and hasn’t started to believe its own lies? Do you have an answer to the questions I asked here?
How do you and Julian know that you are indeed in the “inner ring” of this conspiracy and/or that it’s actual purpose is what you think it is? How sure are you that this conspiracy even has any clue what it’s doing and hasn’t started to believe its own lies? Do you have an answer to the questions I asked here?
On a case-by-case basis, you do experiments. You double-check them. You entertain alternate hypotheses. You accept that it’s entirely possible that things aren’t the way you think they are. You ask yourself what the likely social consequences of your actions are and if you’re comfortable with them, and then ask yourself how you know that. In short, you act like a rationalist.
(And you certainly don’t just downvote everyone who proposes a model that you don’t like.)
Can you describe some of the experiments you did?