Yes; OTOH, if you can already guess in which direction your observations will be moved by more rigorous study, you should move them already.
Not quite true. Say I have a d100 and I have two hypotheses—it is either fair or it is biased to roll ’87′ twice as often as any other number. I can already guess that my observation from rolling the die once will move me in the direction of believing the die is fair (ie. I can reliably guess that I will roll any number except 87). However, if I do happen to roll an 87 then I will update towards ‘biased’ to a greater degree.
It isn’t the direction of the expected evidence that is conserved. It’s the expectation (the directions of all the possibilities multiplied by their respective degrees).
Yup. There is, of course, potentially a big difference between how confident I am that my position will change, and how confident I am that my position will change in some specific direction.
If my observations are unreliable, I should not expect more rigorous study of the subject to confirm my observations.
Yes; OTOH, if you can already guess in which direction your observations will be moved by more rigorous study, you should move them already.
Not quite true. Say I have a d100 and I have two hypotheses—it is either fair or it is biased to roll ’87′ twice as often as any other number. I can already guess that my observation from rolling the die once will move me in the direction of believing the die is fair (ie. I can reliably guess that I will roll any number except 87). However, if I do happen to roll an 87 then I will update towards ‘biased’ to a greater degree.
It isn’t the direction of the expected evidence that is conserved. It’s the expectation (the directions of all the possibilities multiplied by their respective degrees).
Yup. There is, of course, potentially a big difference between how confident I am that my position will change, and how confident I am that my position will change in some specific direction.