“let’s presume that if anyone in a household gets infected, they are probably going to infect the rest of the household, and we’ll set that probability at 100%.”
Curious what the logic was here to use 100% instead of doing our best to try and find what the household secondary attack rates have been. Below is a study from Mar 4th putting it at 15%
Even if it was in the 30-40% ballpark, it seems like that would be enough to heavily weigh us towards recommending for younger people to take the task of grocery shopping, no?
“let’s presume that if anyone in a household gets infected, they are probably going to infect the rest of the household, and we’ll set that probability at 100%.”
Curious what the logic was here to use 100% instead of doing our best to try and find what the household secondary attack rates have been. Below is a study from Mar 4th putting it at 15%
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf (4 Mar, N=391, Shenzhen cases) Household secondary attack rate was 15%
Even if it was in the 30-40% ballpark, it seems like that would be enough to heavily weigh us towards recommending for younger people to take the task of grocery shopping, no?
See this for some commentary on that study (and others)