I’d say the mistake was speaking about disastrous consequences (as a certain fact), when in reality you had little information to back this up.
The proper approach in such situation would be asking: “I heard about X. Do you think it will significantly impact Y?” And then the debate would be about the estimated impacts of X (instead of about your overconfidence).
The political aspect just makes it worse, but I think speaking about disasters in situations where you have little information would be bad even in non-political areas.
I’d say the mistake was speaking about disastrous consequences (as a certain fact), when in reality you had little information to back this up.
The proper approach in such situation would be asking: “I heard about X. Do you think it will significantly impact Y?” And then the debate would be about the estimated impacts of X (instead of about your overconfidence).
The political aspect just makes it worse, but I think speaking about disasters in situations where you have little information would be bad even in non-political areas.