My “threshold” criteria here should help. It seems we’ll likely get at least one front-page headline about a novel illness, and more likely many headlines, before the world reacts. My guess is that for those of us not working professionally in pandemic prevention, we’ll know early enough from the press to be on watch. The point of this model is to get us to the next step, which is reasoning under uncertainty and acting appropriately.
My “threshold” criteria here should help. It seems we’ll likely get at least one front-page headline about a novel illness, and more likely many headlines, before the world reacts. My guess is that for those of us not working professionally in pandemic prevention, we’ll know early enough from the press to be on watch. The point of this model is to get us to the next step, which is reasoning under uncertainty and acting appropriately.
By the way, check out my updated alarm bell criteria, which I just posted yesterday.