You looked at whether your criteria where reasonable for the crisis this year but that’s not enough to tell whether the criteria where positive in this crisis but also how often they were positive in the last two decades.
Without engaging in deep research myself I think there’s a good chance that H1N1 triggered the criteria you listed but it would have been a mistake to sell stocks in response.
You looked at whether your criteria where reasonable for the crisis this year but that’s not enough to tell whether the criteria where positive in this crisis but also how often they were positive in the last two decades.
Without engaging in deep research myself I think there’s a good chance that H1N1 triggered the criteria you listed but it would have been a mistake to sell stocks in response.
I decided to make H1N1 the first alarm bell test. It performed correctly, not ringing!
That’s great, and does give me more confidence in the alarm bell being useful.
Are you talking about Spanish flu in 1918 (which was caused by H1N1), or a more recent outbreak?
I did mean the 2009 outbreak.
From context it’s presumably the 2009 outbreak where roughly ~60 million got infected in the US