I think even a few days has the potential to be extremely valuable if it can be pulled off. If worldwide reactions had happened a few days sooner then half of the cases could have been avoided. LW ringing an alarm bell a few days earlier might not have had an effect on policy but its important to note how big the potential gains are.
As you say in the OP, the next time any pandemic comes along the worldwide response is likely to be better. So my main question is how do we generalise this advice for other severe dangers.
To me one of the main issues if the speed at which things happen. Most things which happen gradually give enough time for people to react without disastrous consequences—COVID only gives a few days before your problem is doubled. This would be fairly high on my checklist specifically for a future pandemic—low doubling times—but for general alarm bell ringing speed of problem development should also be up there.
I think even a few days has the potential to be extremely valuable if it can be pulled off. If worldwide reactions had happened a few days sooner then half of the cases could have been avoided. LW ringing an alarm bell a few days earlier might not have had an effect on policy but its important to note how big the potential gains are.
As you say in the OP, the next time any pandemic comes along the worldwide response is likely to be better. So my main question is how do we generalise this advice for other severe dangers.
To me one of the main issues if the speed at which things happen. Most things which happen gradually give enough time for people to react without disastrous consequences—COVID only gives a few days before your problem is doubled. This would be fairly high on my checklist specifically for a future pandemic—low doubling times—but for general alarm bell ringing speed of problem development should also be up there.
*insert obligatory FOOM comment here...*