So, about that “any future details would make me update in one direction, so I may as well update now” move: I think it would be helpful to have a description of how it can possibly be a correct thing to do at all from Bayesian standpoint. Like, is situation supposed to be that you already have a general mechanism generating these details and just don’t realise it? But then you need reasons to believe that general mechanism. Or is it just “I did such update bunch of times and it usually worked”? Or what?
Suppose there are four possibilities you’re uncertain between: A, B, C, and D. A implies X, B implies X, C implies X, and D implies X. So if A/B/C/D genuinely exhaust the options, then we can conclude X without needing to know which of the four is correct.
A simple concrete example might be: ‘When I’m in wishful-thinking Abstract Mode, I imagine that one of my siblings will take out the trash today. But when I actually think about each individual sibling, I remember that Alice is sleeping over at a friend’s house today, and Bob never takes out the trash, and Carol is really busy with her class project, and...’
Thanks. Then I think what people have trouble with is constraining the space of options and not update itself, and I don’t see what’s the point of fraiming it like this.
So, about that “any future details would make me update in one direction, so I may as well update now” move: I think it would be helpful to have a description of how it can possibly be a correct thing to do at all from Bayesian standpoint. Like, is situation supposed to be that you already have a general mechanism generating these details and just don’t realise it? But then you need reasons to believe that general mechanism. Or is it just “I did such update bunch of times and it usually worked”? Or what?
Suppose there are four possibilities you’re uncertain between: A, B, C, and D. A implies X, B implies X, C implies X, and D implies X. So if A/B/C/D genuinely exhaust the options, then we can conclude X without needing to know which of the four is correct.
A simple concrete example might be: ‘When I’m in wishful-thinking Abstract Mode, I imagine that one of my siblings will take out the trash today. But when I actually think about each individual sibling, I remember that Alice is sleeping over at a friend’s house today, and Bob never takes out the trash, and Carol is really busy with her class project, and...’
Thanks. Then I think what people have trouble with is constraining the space of options and not update itself, and I don’t see what’s the point of fraiming it like this.
I wrote a quick draft about this a month ago, working through the simple math of this kind of update. I’ve just put it up.
Awesome!