The technique you described is in fact very useful
If your probability distribution over futures happens to be such that it has a “mainline prediction”, you get significant benefits from that (similar to the benefits you get from the technique you described).
Ah, got it. I agree that:
The technique you described is in fact very useful
If your probability distribution over futures happens to be such that it has a “mainline prediction”, you get significant benefits from that (similar to the benefits you get from the technique you described).