This appears to be) an example of an accumulation of weak evidence badly used, but in the opposite direction. (I say “appears”, because I haven’t read the article it references, just that LW posting and its comments.)
Probabilities of multiple events are being multiplied without concern for whether they are independent. And that is the basic practical problem with accumulating weak evidence. Look at the vast amount of evidence for the existence of Santa Claus! Even if each story only offers a microbit of evidence....well, no. The stories are not independent of each other. Collectively they prove no more than a handful of them do.
This appears to be) an example of an accumulation of weak evidence badly used, but in the opposite direction. (I say “appears”, because I haven’t read the article it references, just that LW posting and its comments.)
Probabilities of multiple events are being multiplied without concern for whether they are independent. And that is the basic practical problem with accumulating weak evidence. Look at the vast amount of evidence for the existence of Santa Claus! Even if each story only offers a microbit of evidence....well, no. The stories are not independent of each other. Collectively they prove no more than a handful of them do.