I think you are interpreting my comments with too much emphasis on specific examples I give. Sure, Earth being 1 million years old is unlikely, but there could be some equally embarrassing artifact or contradictory evidence. I can’t give a realistic example because I haven’t studied the problem—that’s my whole point. You seem to be saying that the Theory of Evolution is unfalsifiable, at least in practice. That would be a bad thing, not a good thing. Besides, surely, if someone runs cryptological analysis software on the DNA of E. Coli, and get back “(C) Microsoft Corp.”, that would rather undermine the theory?:)
In actuality, for me it comes down to trust: I expect if there was important contradictory evidence, someone would report it. Creationists think that biologists are all in on a conspiracy to hide the truth and would not change their mind if they see such evidence—that is rather unlikely from my point of view. That is to say, like you, I am not spending a lot of time evaluating the underlying facts because I think one side is reliable and the other is not. But it feels wrong to me to ignore evidence because of who says it. I understand your argument that you expect some evidence to be presented by them and that makes it unnecessary to examine it, but I think you are wrong. You do have to examine it in case it turns out that their evidence is in fact overwhelming your prior. They could be right in a specific case even if it’s unlikely. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
You seem to be saying that the Theory of Evolution is unfalsifiable, at least in practice. That would be a bad thing, not a good thing.
Let’s be a bit more precise. Evolution is a mechanism. It works given certain well-known preconditions. The fact that it works is not contested by anyone sane.
What actually is contested by creationists is that the mechanism of evolution is sufficient to generate all the variety of life we see on Earth and that it actually did, in fact, generate all that variety. *That* claim is falsifiable -- e.g. by showing that some cause/mechanism/agency other than evolution played an important part in the development of life on Earth.
You’re steelmanning the creationist position. That’s fine, but by saying “what actually is contested...” you’re also asserting that creationists only believe your steelman and not the position it’s a steelman of.
There may be some who do.
However, there are plenty of creationists who think that evolution cannot work. Some of their arguments include: “Evolution would mean order comes out of disorder, which is impossible” and “Evolution is a violation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.”
I think it better be true that both of these are falsifiable (and they both are). I agree that the former is overwhelmingly likely and no one I’d care to talk to disputes it. In any event I am only talking about the latter. The fact that it completely explains the variety of life on Earth is the very thing I am accepting on faith, and that’s what I don’t like.
I think you are interpreting my comments with too much emphasis on specific examples I give. Sure, Earth being 1 million years old is unlikely, but there could be some equally embarrassing artifact or contradictory evidence. I can’t give a realistic example because I haven’t studied the problem—that’s my whole point. You seem to be saying that the Theory of Evolution is unfalsifiable, at least in practice. That would be a bad thing, not a good thing. Besides, surely, if someone runs cryptological analysis software on the DNA of E. Coli, and get back “(C) Microsoft Corp.”, that would rather undermine the theory?:)
In actuality, for me it comes down to trust: I expect if there was important contradictory evidence, someone would report it. Creationists think that biologists are all in on a conspiracy to hide the truth and would not change their mind if they see such evidence—that is rather unlikely from my point of view. That is to say, like you, I am not spending a lot of time evaluating the underlying facts because I think one side is reliable and the other is not. But it feels wrong to me to ignore evidence because of who says it. I understand your argument that you expect some evidence to be presented by them and that makes it unnecessary to examine it, but I think you are wrong. You do have to examine it in case it turns out that their evidence is in fact overwhelming your prior. They could be right in a specific case even if it’s unlikely. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Let’s be a bit more precise. Evolution is a mechanism. It works given certain well-known preconditions. The fact that it works is not contested by anyone sane.
What actually is contested by creationists is that the mechanism of evolution is sufficient to generate all the variety of life we see on Earth and that it actually did, in fact, generate all that variety. *That* claim is falsifiable -- e.g. by showing that some cause/mechanism/agency other than evolution played an important part in the development of life on Earth.
You’re steelmanning the creationist position. That’s fine, but by saying “what actually is contested...” you’re also asserting that creationists only believe your steelman and not the position it’s a steelman of.
There may be some who do.
However, there are plenty of creationists who think that evolution cannot work. Some of their arguments include: “Evolution would mean order comes out of disorder, which is impossible” and “Evolution is a violation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics.”
Sure, but we are not really talking about the creationists here, we’re talking about whether evolution is falsifiable and in which sense.
As the person who asked the question, I’d like to say that I don’t particularly care about what creationists believe either.
I think it better be true that both of these are falsifiable (and they both are). I agree that the former is overwhelmingly likely and no one I’d care to talk to disputes it. In any event I am only talking about the latter. The fact that it completely explains the variety of life on Earth is the very thing I am accepting on faith, and that’s what I don’t like.