Obviously, outputting numbers like 10^39 is a sign that your argument is flawed. Nonetheless, I have sympathy for McGrew because so many are misunderstanding her argument.
Christian: If they were independent, the chances of the disciples coming up with the same story are tiny. So it is most likely they are all reporting reality.
Non-Christian: I agree that would be the case if they were independent, but it is more likely that they were in communication and conspired than that there is a supernatural/Jesus rose from the dead/etc.
C: If they were in communication, each martyr had the opportunity to sell out the conspiracy when threatened with death. As unlikely as all the disciples independently hallucinating and dying for a lie is, it is even less likely that each martyr independently chose to die for a conspiracy when each martyr knew any of the other disciples could render their martyrdom pointless by selling out the conspiracy (i.e. defecting in the prisoner’s dilemma).
It is even less likely that all of them would cooperate in a many-way prisoner’s dilemma when each knew the others knew how unlikely it would be for each to cooperate in a many way prisoner’s dilemma when each knew...etc.
Therefore, the conservative assumption is that each was independent, which yields 10^39 to one that Jesus rose from the dead at the least (though it is really more likely than that because I am assuming independence, for which my argument is weaker than had they conspired). Consider: each would be consciously dying for a lie (nothing to gain, everything to lose), unlike people who later made up stories to be famous or for whatever reason (everything to gain, nothing to lose) when they were not in position to now what had happened.
So I am using 1 - [P(people make stuff up about Jesus) P(they don’t get called on it)], P(they don’t get called on it) is tiny for cases in which each disciple is claiming that the other disciples were eyewitnesses, particularly* when they are not independent.
N-C: Aha! So you admit that you got 10^39 from an assumption of independence!
We know that many zealous followers are willing to die for the honor of their leaders. It would not be very surprising to see that happen in early Christianity.
There isn’t even a requirement that they all do so—or even most! Those who recanted would be forgotten, their recanting being attributed to pressure rather than belief.
I would like to hear your disagreements too, even if Lydia McGrew is not interested.
Obviously, outputting numbers like 10^39 is a sign that your argument is flawed. Nonetheless, I have sympathy for McGrew because so many are misunderstanding her argument.
Christian: If they were independent, the chances of the disciples coming up with the same story are tiny. So it is most likely they are all reporting reality.
Non-Christian: I agree that would be the case if they were independent, but it is more likely that they were in communication and conspired than that there is a supernatural/Jesus rose from the dead/etc.
C: If they were in communication, each martyr had the opportunity to sell out the conspiracy when threatened with death. As unlikely as all the disciples independently hallucinating and dying for a lie is, it is even less likely that each martyr independently chose to die for a conspiracy when each martyr knew any of the other disciples could render their martyrdom pointless by selling out the conspiracy (i.e. defecting in the prisoner’s dilemma).
It is even less likely that all of them would cooperate in a many-way prisoner’s dilemma when each knew the others knew how unlikely it would be for each to cooperate in a many way prisoner’s dilemma when each knew...etc.
Therefore, the conservative assumption is that each was independent, which yields 10^39 to one that Jesus rose from the dead at the least (though it is really more likely than that because I am assuming independence, for which my argument is weaker than had they conspired). Consider: each would be consciously dying for a lie (nothing to gain, everything to lose), unlike people who later made up stories to be famous or for whatever reason (everything to gain, nothing to lose) when they were not in position to now what had happened.
So I am using 1 - [P(people make stuff up about Jesus) P(they don’t get called on it)], P(they don’t get called on it) is tiny for cases in which each disciple is claiming that the other disciples were eyewitnesses, particularly* when they are not independent.
N-C: Aha! So you admit that you got 10^39 from an assumption of independence!
C:...(sigh)...
We know that many zealous followers are willing to die for the honor of their leaders. It would not be very surprising to see that happen in early Christianity.
There isn’t even a requirement that they all do so—or even most! Those who recanted would be forgotten, their recanting being attributed to pressure rather than belief.