Mentioning children and AGW together leads me to express a concern I have.
If we work on a given that anthropogenic AGW is factual, or so close as makes no difference, and that we should move to mitigate as quickly as possible.
There is a key phrase in that- “as quickly as possible” which as well as the obvious “no slower than possible” also contains “no quicker than possible”. We all will have seen (at least those of us in UK/ Europe) the almost deification of Greta Thunberg and the primacy in discourse of the Extinction Rebellion narrative (not least of all indicated by their name).
I worry that we are in danger of becoming a pedocracy (a word that apparently has two definitions, I mean rule by children, not pedophiles). If you ask the average concerned 12 yr old what is to be done, they would say that we should stop burning fossil fuels right now.
The world population before the industrial revolution was approx 1 billion. We can safely assume this was not down to insufficient fornication, but was the Malthusian limit. Nearly all the subsequent population expansion has been enabled by energy use. If we make a wild stab and say that due to other advances we could now support a non industrial population of 2 billion, and that we get to keep the 20% of non fossil energy generation, that still means a max population of 3 billion, or 4 billion deaths, mostly by starvation.
I have a feeling that won’t go well.
We need the grown ups to be dealing with this, ideally the brightest and the best. The notion of a new ‘moonshot’ is just the sort of thing. Trouble is I don’t see where it comes from. The USA would be traditionally the best placed, but not the current administration, and I don’t see the Dems really looking like that would be their priority, too wrapped up in identity politics really. China maybe, but I don’t think they have the wealth yet. The EU are too impossibly bureaucratic to do it, and quite probably the whole thing may come crashing down with a combination of sovereign debt problems (insoluble with a common currency) and Brexit contagion.
they would say that we should stop burning fossil fuels right now.
And would that be so hard?
Stop driving petrol and diesel cars.
Use public transport instead.
Make all new public transport electric – recharge buses at bus stops, etc.. Put in place infrastructure to support this.
Travel less. (The response to COVID-19 proves this can be done.)
Stop burning fossil fuels in power stations.
Use less (peak) electricity.
Turn lights off, turn down screen brightness on computers and phones, don’t watch as much television, use less water, run washing machines overnight and at lower temperatures, buy energy-efficient, etc..
Charge batteries when supply is high, release electricity back when demand is high if battery-powered devices won’t be used.
Make the price correspond to the actual cost; if a fossil fuel power station needs to be turned on to meet demand, charge more for the electricity so provided.
Industry could probably do something about this, too; I hear they use a lot of electricity. Monetary incentives might help… persuade them, if they’re still run by adults.
Turn off unneeded fossil fuel power stations.
Replace fossil fuel power stations with renewables, and perhaps nuclear if it can be kept clean and safe.
Stop burning fossil fuels in aeroplanes and overseas shipping.
Buy local. Make this a strong demand, when you buy stuff.
Put information about supply chains on products and stuff. Clear information, visually laid out in a graph or on a map or something, without missing out any intermediate information. That way, people can tell whether things have been shipped in shipping containers, and whether “grown in France” means “travelled by lorry to Bayonne from further away than just getting it from Navarre”.
Perhaps something about tax? Tax seems like an adulty solution for people who care more about money and politics than saving the world, but it seems to work kind of well when nobody seems to care about the world.
Travel less. Going to other countries is for holidays, not for two-day business trips to shake somebody’s hand and spend ten minutes talking about something you could’ve just phoned them about. (And not every holiday, either; there are usually plenty of great places near where you live, or within public transport’s distance.)
But, you might say, these things aren’t practical. And, by an adult’s standard, they aren’t; an adult sees so many insurmountable obstacles. But all of these obstacles are human-made. They’re social obstacles: selfish behaviour, lack of co-operation, the principle that a single person’s defection might let you eat your cake and still have 95% of a cake… none of that is ingrained in childish decision-making, as it is with many adults. Many children can co-operate nicely, when it matters. Certainly when saying what it is to do, when the answer’s obvious, and yet nobody’s doing it…
You speak as though children would be unable to deal with challenges – additional constraints, such as “our civilisation might not be able to provide food for so many people without burning fossil fuels”. But that’s not true. Most children would not have the experience to spot these difficulties as well as you would, but that isn’t the same as ignoring them when they’re brought to their attention. (Isn’t that what advisors are for? All decision makers have advisors.)
I may be a rather old child, but I’ve still retained the ability to think as though I didn’t prioritise “adult” concerns (where I use the label in the way that I used to, when I was younger). I produced that list above by simulating past me in my head – the person who committed to always setting the screen brightness on computers to the lowest setting possible, washing my hands in a trickle of cold water with just enough soap to do the job (a commitment I hope to get back to once lives aren’t at stake), and turning off all of the switches that didn’t need to be on. The only change was knowledge; I permitted that simulated past self all of the information I possessed, to call on when necessary.
I don’t make those kinds of commitments any more. I don’t know why; it just seems somehow more important to get along with other people and preserve my status in the social hierarchy – the thought patterns that are telling me that it’s childish to even be writing this comment.
Are there problems with this proposal? Yes. There are considerations that past-me never would’ve thought of. But it’s barely more effort to spot those issues than to solve them; the only remaining problem is to get people to actually do something.
So I say: bring on the liberiocracy. (I know I’m using Latin with a Greek-derived suffix here, but I like this word.)
Mentioning children and AGW together leads me to express a concern I have.
If we work on a given that anthropogenic AGW is factual, or so close as makes no difference, and that we should move to mitigate as quickly as possible.
There is a key phrase in that- “as quickly as possible” which as well as the obvious “no slower than possible” also contains “no quicker than possible”. We all will have seen (at least those of us in UK/ Europe) the almost deification of Greta Thunberg and the primacy in discourse of the Extinction Rebellion narrative (not least of all indicated by their name).
I worry that we are in danger of becoming a pedocracy (a word that apparently has two definitions, I mean rule by children, not pedophiles). If you ask the average concerned 12 yr old what is to be done, they would say that we should stop burning fossil fuels right now.
The world population before the industrial revolution was approx 1 billion. We can safely assume this was not down to insufficient fornication, but was the Malthusian limit. Nearly all the subsequent population expansion has been enabled by energy use. If we make a wild stab and say that due to other advances we could now support a non industrial population of 2 billion, and that we get to keep the 20% of non fossil energy generation, that still means a max population of 3 billion, or 4 billion deaths, mostly by starvation.
I have a feeling that won’t go well.
We need the grown ups to be dealing with this, ideally the brightest and the best. The notion of a new ‘moonshot’ is just the sort of thing. Trouble is I don’t see where it comes from. The USA would be traditionally the best placed, but not the current administration, and I don’t see the Dems really looking like that would be their priority, too wrapped up in identity politics really. China maybe, but I don’t think they have the wealth yet. The EU are too impossibly bureaucratic to do it, and quite probably the whole thing may come crashing down with a combination of sovereign debt problems (insoluble with a common currency) and Brexit contagion.
All suggestions gratefully received!
And would that be so hard?
Stop driving petrol and diesel cars.
Use public transport instead.
Make all new public transport electric – recharge buses at bus stops, etc.. Put in place infrastructure to support this.
Travel less. (The response to COVID-19 proves this can be done.)
Stop burning fossil fuels in power stations.
Use less (peak) electricity.
Turn lights off, turn down screen brightness on computers and phones, don’t watch as much television, use less water, run washing machines overnight and at lower temperatures, buy energy-efficient, etc..
Charge batteries when supply is high, release electricity back when demand is high if battery-powered devices won’t be used.
Make the price correspond to the actual cost; if a fossil fuel power station needs to be turned on to meet demand, charge more for the electricity so provided.
Industry could probably do something about this, too; I hear they use a lot of electricity. Monetary incentives might help… persuade them, if they’re still run by adults.
Turn off unneeded fossil fuel power stations.
Replace fossil fuel power stations with renewables, and perhaps nuclear if it can be kept clean and safe.
Stop burning fossil fuels in aeroplanes and overseas shipping.
Buy local. Make this a strong demand, when you buy stuff.
Put information about supply chains on products and stuff. Clear information, visually laid out in a graph or on a map or something, without missing out any intermediate information. That way, people can tell whether things have been shipped in shipping containers, and whether “grown in France” means “travelled by lorry to Bayonne from further away than just getting it from Navarre”.
Perhaps something about tax? Tax seems like an adulty solution for people who care more about money and politics than saving the world, but it seems to work kind of well when nobody seems to care about the world.
Travel less. Going to other countries is for holidays, not for two-day business trips to shake somebody’s hand and spend ten minutes talking about something you could’ve just phoned them about. (And not every holiday, either; there are usually plenty of great places near where you live, or within public transport’s distance.)
But, you might say, these things aren’t practical. And, by an adult’s standard, they aren’t; an adult sees so many insurmountable obstacles. But all of these obstacles are human-made. They’re social obstacles: selfish behaviour, lack of co-operation, the principle that a single person’s defection might let you eat your cake and still have 95% of a cake… none of that is ingrained in childish decision-making, as it is with many adults. Many children can co-operate nicely, when it matters. Certainly when saying what it is to do, when the answer’s obvious, and yet nobody’s doing it…
You speak as though children would be unable to deal with challenges – additional constraints, such as “our civilisation might not be able to provide food for so many people without burning fossil fuels”. But that’s not true. Most children would not have the experience to spot these difficulties as well as you would, but that isn’t the same as ignoring them when they’re brought to their attention. (Isn’t that what advisors are for? All decision makers have advisors.)
I may be a rather old child, but I’ve still retained the ability to think as though I didn’t prioritise “adult” concerns (where I use the label in the way that I used to, when I was younger). I produced that list above by simulating past me in my head – the person who committed to always setting the screen brightness on computers to the lowest setting possible, washing my hands in a trickle of cold water with just enough soap to do the job (a commitment I hope to get back to once lives aren’t at stake), and turning off all of the switches that didn’t need to be on. The only change was knowledge; I permitted that simulated past self all of the information I possessed, to call on when necessary.
I don’t make those kinds of commitments any more. I don’t know why; it just seems somehow more important to get along with other people and preserve my status in the social hierarchy – the thought patterns that are telling me that it’s childish to even be writing this comment.
Are there problems with this proposal? Yes. There are considerations that past-me never would’ve thought of. But it’s barely more effort to spot those issues than to solve them; the only remaining problem is to get people to actually do something.
So I say: bring on the liberiocracy. (I know I’m using Latin with a Greek-derived suffix here, but I like this word.)